Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Progressive Corp (PGR)

2K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in PGR. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -46
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
49%

Smart Money Signals — PGR

Based on 1761 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their PGR positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 94% of 3.0Y peak

94% of all-time peak
1,761 funds currently hold this stock — 94% of the 3.0-year high of 1,880 funds (reached 2025 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding PGR is almost the same as a year ago (-58 funds, -3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying

884 buying914 selling
Last quarter: 914 funds reduced or exited vs 884 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-60 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 209 → 125 → 239 → 179. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 63% conviction (2yr+) ■ 20% medium ■ 17% new
1,117 out of 1,761 hedge funds have held PGR for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

245 → 209 → 125 → 239 → 179 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 209 → 125 → 239 → 179. A growing number of institutions are discovering PGR each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 64% veterans vs 21% newcomers

■ 64% veterans ■ 15% 1-2yr ■ 21% new
Entry-cohort mix of 1,803 holders: 1,155 (64%) are 2+ year veterans, 262 entered 1–2 years ago, and 386 (21%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 51% AUM from top-100 funds

51% from top-100 AUM funds
69 of 1757 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 51% of total institutional value in PGR. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — PGR

In 2026 Q1, 884 hedge funds were net buyers of PGR (179 opened a new position, 705 added to an existing one), while 914 reduced or exited (689 trimmed, 225 sold completely) — a 49% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 51% of total institutional value in PGR is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -46 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 1761.

Hedge Fund Ownership: PGR

How many hedge funds hold PGR — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of PGR vs. share price

Market Analysis: PGR

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: PGR

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Progressive Corp (PGR) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much PGR has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLF) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 75d ago
PGR
+2.5%
XLF
+8.0%

PGR outperformed XLF by -5.5% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 30d ago
PGR
+1.7%
XLF
+4.4%

Since the filing became public, PGR outperformed XLF by -2.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

82 top-rated funds 25 high-conviction
Consensus
8.3
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
5.3
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: PGR
2K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in PGR. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 1745 1807 -3.43%
13F Shares 501M 513M -2.34%
Total Value $96.12B $115.00B -16.41%
New Positions 173 239 -66
Increased Positions 684 657 +27
Closed Positions 235 203 +32
Reduced Positions 677 700 -23
Total Calls 22 29 -24.14%
Total Puts 24 26 -7.69%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.09 0.9 Neutral

Statistics: PGR

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Income Statement & Cash Flow
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Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

2K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in PGR. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 PGR holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Bonness Enterprises Inc 37.19% 512,457 $101.6M
2 Courant Investment Management LLC 22.49% 116,170 $23.0M
3 Mbb Public Markets I LLC 21.03% 890,558 $176.5M
4 RIHO Partners, LLC 17.59% 122,100 $27.8M
5 Van Cleef Asset Management,Inc 16.35% 765,838 $151.8M
6 Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca 11.95% 880,863 $174.6M
7 Headland Capital, LLC 11.26% 201,569 $40.0M
8 Capco Asset Management, LLC 10.38% 191,971 $38.1M
9 Marshfield Associates 9.75% 2,455,384 $486.8M
10 LFL Advisers, LLC 8.40% 140,779 $27.9M
11 BloombergSen Inc. 8.14% 539,864 $107.0M
12 NFC Investments, LLC 7.16% 129,641 $25.7M
13 Weik Capital Management 6.99% 88,548 $17.6M
14 Pacific Capital Partners Ltd 6.80% 34,784 $6.9M
15 Timucuan Asset Management Inc/Fl 6.67% 914,198 $181.2M
16 Central Securities Corp 6.54% 400,000 $79.3M
17 Bretton Capital Management, LLC 6.06% 33,400 $6.6M
18 Consulta Ltd 5.92% 600,000 $118.9M
19 Tempo Wealth, LLC 5.47% 158,330 $31.4M
20 Lountzis Asset Management, LLC 5.20% 71,542 $14.2M
21 GoodHaven Capital Management, LLC 3.97% 57,448 $11.4M
22 James Hambro & Partners LLP 3.87% 498,299 $98.8M
23 Giverny Capital Inc. 3.83% 528,364 $104.7M
24 Hutchinson Capital Management/Ca 3.70% 101,419 $20.1M
25 Winmill & CO. Inc 3.66% 64,000 $12.7M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Progressive Corp (PGR)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for PGR?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their PGR positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for PGR?

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying: Last quarter: 914 funds reduced or exited vs 884 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for PGR holders?

Elite ownership — 51% AUM from top-100 funds: 69 of 1757 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 51% of total institutional value in PGR. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held PGR?

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1,117 out of 1,761 hedge funds have held PGR for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Progressive Corp (PGR) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, PGR has moved +1.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +4.4% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of -2.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), PGR has gained +2.5% vs +8.0% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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