Based on 7 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their UST positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻
Below peak — only 64% of 3.0Y high
64% of all-time peak
Only 7 funds hold UST today versus a peak of 11 funds at 2024 Q3 — just 64% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
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Outflows — 22% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
2 fewer hedge funds hold UST compared to a year ago (-22% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 44% buying
4 buying5 selling
Last quarter: 5 funds reduced or exited vs 4 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~2 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 2 → 2 → 2. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
43% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 43% conviction (2yr+)
■ 43% medium
■ 14% new
3 out of 7 hedge funds have held UST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📊
Peak discovery — momentum slowing
3 → 4 → 2 → 2 → 2 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 2 → 2 → 2. UST is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 57% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 57% veterans
■ 0% 1-2yr
■ 43% new
Of 7 current holders: 4 (57%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆
Elite ownership — 41% AUM from top-100 funds
41% from top-100 AUM funds
2 of 7 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 41% of total institutional value in UST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
Exit risk score 1.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.