Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
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Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL)

27 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -5
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
47%

Smart Money Signals — NAIL

Based on 28 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 85% of 3.0Y peak

85% of all-time peak
28 funds currently hold this stock — 85% of the 3.0-year high of 33 funds (reached 2025 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding NAIL is almost the same as a year ago (-1 funds, -3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying

18 buying20 selling
Last quarter: 20 funds reduced or exited vs 18 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~7 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 1 → 12 → 12 → 7. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
📌

Mixed — 39% long-term, 32% new

39% conviction (2yr+) 29% medium 32% new
Of the 28 current holders: 11 (39%) held >2 years, 8 held 1–2 years, and 9 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -28%, value -45%

Value
-45%
Shares
-28%
Last quarter: funds added -28% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -45%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~7 new funds/quarter

11 → 1 → 12 → 12 → 7 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 1 → 12 → 12 → 7. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 45% veterans vs 42% newcomers

45% veterans 12% 1-2yr 42% new
Entry-cohort mix of 33 holders: 15 (45%) are 2+ year veterans, 4 entered 1–2 years ago, and 14 (42%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.

Strong quality — 26% AUM from major funds

26% from top-100 AUM funds
5 of 24 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 26% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
3.5
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NAIL

In 2026 Q1, 18 hedge funds were net buyers of NAIL (7 opened a new position, 11 added to an existing one), while 20 reduced or exited (8 trimmed, 12 sold completely) — a 47% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 26% of total institutional value in NAIL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -5 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 28.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NAIL

How many hedge funds hold NAIL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NAIL vs. share price

Market Analysis: NAIL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NAIL

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NAIL has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 4d ago
NAIL
-5.4%
SPY
-0.3%

NAIL outperformed SPY by -5.1% since June 30, 2026.

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

0 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
0.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.3
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NAIL
2026 Q2 Stats Unlock in 46 days 27 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 27 33 -18.18%
13F Shares 2M 3M -28.6%
Total Value $78M $142M -45.43%
New Positions 7 12 -5
Increased Positions 11 12 -1
Closed Positions 13 8 +5
Reduced Positions 4 5 -1
Total Calls 5 4 25.0%
Total Puts 3 3 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.6 0.75 Bullish

Statistics: NAIL

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

27 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NAIL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NAIL?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for NAIL?

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying: Last quarter: 20 funds reduced or exited vs 18 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for NAIL holders?

Strong quality — 26% AUM from major funds: 5 of 24 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 26% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held NAIL?

Mixed — 39% long-term, 32% new: Of the 28 current holders: 11 (39%) held >2 years, 8 held 1–2 years, and 9 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.

Is it too late to buy Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), NAIL has gained -5.4% vs -0.3% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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