Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL)

31 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +4
Streak
1Q ▲
Buyers last Q
64%

Smart Money Signals — NAIL

Based on 32 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added NAIL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
📊

High ownership — 94% of 3.0Y peak

94% of all-time peak
32 funds currently hold this stock — 94% of the 3.0-year high of 34 funds (reached 2025 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +33% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+8 new funds entered over the past year (+33% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying

25 buying14 selling
Last quarter: 25 funds were net buyers (13 opened a brand new position + 12 added to an existing one). Only 14 were sellers (5 trimmed + 9 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+6 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new NAIL position: 12 → 12 → 7 → 13. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
📌

Mixed — 38% long-term, 31% new

■ 38% conviction (2yr+) ■ 31% medium ■ 31% new
Of the 32 current holders: 12 (38%) held >2 years, 10 held 1–2 years, and 10 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
💰

Value +110% but shares only +54% — price-driven

Value
+110%
Shares
+53%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +110%, but actual share count only changed +54%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

2 → 12 → 12 → 7 → 13 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 12 → 12 → 7 → 13. NAIL is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 59% veterans vs 28% newcomers

■ 59% veterans ■ 13% 1-2yr ■ 28% new
Entry-cohort mix of 39 holders: 23 (59%) are 2+ year veterans, 5 entered 1–2 years ago, and 11 (28%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 40% AUM from top-100 funds

40% from top-100 AUM funds
6 of 31 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 40% of total institutional value in NAIL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.5
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NAIL

In 2026 Q2, 25 hedge funds were net buyers of NAIL (13 opened a new position, 12 added to an existing one), while 14 reduced or exited (5 trimmed, 9 sold completely) — a 64% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. 40% of total institutional value in NAIL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +4 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 32.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NAIL

How many hedge funds hold NAIL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NAIL vs. share price

Market Analysis: NAIL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NAIL

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

0 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
0.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.4
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NAIL
31 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NAIL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 31 28 10.71%
13F Shares 3M 2M 53.51%
Total Value $164M $78M 110.36%
New Positions 13 7 +6
Increased Positions 12 11 +1
Closed Positions 9 13 -4
Reduced Positions 2 5 -3
Total Calls 4 5 -20.0%
Total Puts 4 3 33.33%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 0.6 Neutral

Statistics: NAIL

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

31 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NAIL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 NAIL holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Variant Private Wealth, LLC 1.44% 24,626 $1.3M
2 Allium Financial Advisors, LLC 0.27% 7,800 $406K
3 Prairie Advisory, LLC 0.05% 4,010 $208K
4 Headlands Technologies LLC 0.04% 7,524 $391K
5 Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC) 0.03% 25,537 $1.3M
6 Gts Securities LLC 0.02% 20,925 $1.1M
7 Two Sigma Securities, LLC 0.02% 4,995 $260K
8 Vise Technologies, Inc. 0.02% 30,000 $1.6M
9 Prairie Advisory, LLC 0.01% 1,100 $57K
10 Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, LLC 0.01% 4,000 $208K
11 Cape Investment Advisory, Inc. 0.00% 249 $13K
12 Citadel Advisors LLC 0.00% 551,200 $28.7M
13 Susquehanna International Group, LLP 0.00% 698,500 $36.3M
14 Citadel Advisors LLC 0.00% 412,100 $21.4M
15 Natixis 0.00% 10,994 $571K
16 Susquehanna International Group, LLP 0.00% 521,900 $27.1M
17 Squarepoint Ops LLC 0.00% 34,195 $1.8M
18 Hrt Financial LP 0.00% 18,843 $979K
19 IFP Advisors, Inc 0.00% 1,663 $86K
20 Jane Street Group, LLC 0.00% 267,900 $13.9M
21 Simplex Trading, LLC 0.00% 36,619 $1.9M
22 Commerce Bank 0.00% 4,280 $223K
23 Westend Capital Management, LLC 0.00% 82 $4K
24 Group One Trading LLC 0.00% 11,345 $590K
25 Jane Street Group, LLC 0.00% 153,400 $8.0M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Direxion Shares ETF Trust (NAIL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NAIL?

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added NAIL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for NAIL?

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying: Last quarter: 25 funds were net buyers (13 opened a brand new position + 12 added to an existing one). Only 14 were sellers (5 trimmed + 9 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for NAIL holders?

Elite ownership — 40% AUM from top-100 funds: 6 of 31 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 40% of total institutional value in NAIL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held NAIL?

Mixed — 38% long-term, 31% new: Of the 32 current holders: 12 (38%) held >2 years, 10 held 1–2 years, and 10 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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