Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Bridger Aerospace Grp Hldgs (BAERW)

25 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in BAERW. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -6
Streak
3Q ▼
Buyers last Q
19%

Smart Money Signals — BAERW

Based on 25 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their BAERW positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻

Below peak — only 49% of 3.0Y high

49% of all-time peak
Only 25 funds hold BAERW today versus a peak of 51 funds at 2023 Q2 — just 49% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
📉

Outflows — 24% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
8 fewer hedge funds hold BAERW compared to a year ago (-24% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴

Heavy selling pressure — only 19% buying

3 buying13 selling
Last quarter: 13 funds sold vs only 3 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~2 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 5 → 2 → 4 → 2. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

76% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 76% conviction (2yr+) ■ 16% medium ■ 8% new
19 out of 25 hedge funds have held BAERW for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+41% value, -22% shares)

Value
+41%
Shares
-22%
Last quarter: total value of institutional BAERW holdings rose +41% even though funds reduced share count by 22%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~2 new funds/quarter

2 → 5 → 2 → 4 → 2 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 5 → 2 → 4 → 2. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 80% veterans vs 16% newcomers

■ 80% veterans ■ 4% 1-2yr ■ 16% new
Entry-cohort mix of 25 holders: 20 (80%) are 2+ year veterans, 1 entered 1–2 years ago, and 4 (16%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 2% AUM from top-100

2% from top-100 AUM funds
2 of 24 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 2% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
2.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — BAERW

In 2026 Q1, 3 hedge funds were net buyers of BAERW (2 opened a new position, 1 added to an existing one), while 13 reduced or exited (5 trimmed, 8 sold completely) — a 19% buyer ratio, indicating net institutional distribution. This extends a 3-quarter selling streak, suggesting sustained institutional caution. Net fund flow last quarter: -6 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 25.

Hedge Fund Ownership: BAERW

How many hedge funds hold BAERW — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of BAERW vs. share price

Market Analysis: BAERW

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: BAERW

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Bridger Aerospace Grp Hldgs (BAERW) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much BAERW has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 84d ago
BAERW
-29.3%
SPY
+14.9%

BAERW outperformed SPY by -44.2% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 39d ago
BAERW
-35.1%
SPY
+1.1%

Since the filing became public, BAERW outperformed SPY by -36.2% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

0 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
0.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: BAERW
25 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in BAERW. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 25 31 -19.35%
13F Shares 7M 9M -22.17%
Total Value $3M $2M 41.32%
New Positions 2 4 -2
Increased Positions 1 0 +1
Closed Positions 8 6 +2
Reduced Positions 5 3 +2
Total Calls 1 1 -
Total Puts 0 0 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: BAERW

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

25 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in BAERW. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 22 BAERW holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Aristeia Capital, L.L.C. 0.01% 1,604,853 $618K
2 Canyon Capital Advisors LLC 0.01% 175,000 $68K
3 Greenland Capital Management LP 0.00% 85,546 $33K
4 LMR Partners LLP 0.00% 2,252,698 $879K
5 TENOR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT Co., L.P. 0.00% 274,854 $107K
6 Elequin Capital, LP 0.00% 47,317 $18K
7 Foursixthree Capital LP 0.00% 10,000 $4K
8 Davidson Kempner Capital Management LP 0.00% 195,399 $76K
9 Moore Capital Management, LP 0.00% 100,000 $39K
10 Css LLC/Il 0.00% 36,478 $14K
11 Clear Street Group Inc. 0.00% 370,387 $144K
12 Two Sigma Securities, LLC 0.00% 11,287 $4K
13 Toronto Dominion Bank 0.00% 831,693 $320K
14 Saba Capital Management, L.P. 0.00% 18,752 $7K
15 Whitebox Advisors LLC 0.00% 41,500 $16K
16 Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan Trust Fund 0.00% 101,400 $40K
17 Millennium Management LLC 0.00% 334,890 $131K
18 Calamos Advisors LLC 0.00% 25,000 $10K
19 Peak6 LLC 0.00% 35,000 $14K
20 Adage Capital Partners GP, L.L.C. 0.00% 28,551 $11K
21 Jane Street Group, LLC 0.00% 158,352 $62K
22 Goldman Sachs Group Inc 0.00% 11,008 $4K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Bridger Aerospace Grp Hldgs (BAERW)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for BAERW?

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their BAERW positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for BAERW?

Heavy selling pressure — only 19% buying: Last quarter: 13 funds sold vs only 3 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.

What is the fund quality score for BAERW holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 2% AUM from top-100: 2 of 24 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 2% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held BAERW?

76% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 19 out of 25 hedge funds have held BAERW for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Bridger Aerospace Grp Hldgs (BAERW) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, BAERW has moved -35.1% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +1.1% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of -36.2%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), BAERW has gained -29.3% vs +14.9% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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