Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Vistra Corp (VST)

1K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +93
Streak
1Q ▲
Buyers last Q
60%

Smart Money Signals — VST

Based on 1410 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added VST than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
1,410 hedge funds hold VST right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +12% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+150 new funds entered over the past year (+12% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 60% buying

882 buying586 selling
Last quarter: 882 funds were net buyers (241 opened a brand new position + 641 added to an existing one). Only 586 were sellers (438 trimmed + 148 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+51 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new VST position: 215 → 216 → 190 → 241. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

42% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 42% conviction (2yr+) ■ 33% medium ■ 25% new
588 out of 1,410 hedge funds have held VST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +28%, value +13%

Value
+13%
Shares
+28%
Last quarter: funds added +28% more shares while total portfolio value only changed +13%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~241 new funds/quarter

272 → 215 → 216 → 190 → 241 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 215 → 216 → 190 → 241. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 45% veterans vs 32% newcomers

■ 45% veterans ■ 23% 1-2yr ■ 32% new
Entry-cohort mix of 1,500 holders: 675 (45%) are 2+ year veterans, 352 entered 1–2 years ago, and 473 (32%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 58% AUM from top-100 funds

58% from top-100 AUM funds
69 of 1399 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 58% of total institutional value in VST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VST

In 2026 Q2, 882 hedge funds were net buyers of VST (241 opened a new position, 641 added to an existing one), while 586 reduced or exited (438 trimmed, 148 sold completely) — a 60% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. 58% of total institutional value in VST is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +93 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 1410.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VST

How many hedge funds hold VST — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VST vs. share price

Market Analysis: VST

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VST

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Vistra Corp (VST) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VST has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLU) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 81d ago
VST
-11.3%
XLU
-8.1%

VST outperformed XLU by -3.2% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 36d ago
VST
-5.0%
XLU
-5.9%

Since the filing became public, VST outperformed XLU by +0.9% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Strong Institutional Conviction

Multiple high-quality funds hold meaningful positions with strong conviction.

60 top-rated funds 33 high-conviction
Consensus
7.8
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
7.8
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VST
1K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 1390 1317 5.54%
13F Shares 321M 299M 7.49%
Total Value $49.41B $43.96B 12.4%
New Positions 237 190 +47
Increased Positions 615 571 +44
Closed Positions 153 205 -52
Reduced Positions 411 407 +4
Total Calls 52 48 8.33%
Total Puts 48 45 6.67%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.92 0.94 Neutral

Statistics: VST

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

1K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VST. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 VST holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Thiel Macro LLC 14.12% 372,755 $59.1M
2 Glendon Capital Management LP 12.05% 586,724 $93.1M
3 Forest Avenue Capital Management LP 10.22% 1,534,281 $243.4M
4 Segra Capital Management, LLC 9.47% 295,956 $46.9M
5 Hallstatt Advisors L.P. 9.10% 81,444 $12.9M
6 Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. 8.91% 256,306 $40.7M
7 Ratan Capital Management LP 8.33% 86,728 $25.8M
8 Alden Global Capital LLC 8.13% 139,624 $22.1M
9 General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co 7.88% 331,694 $52.6M
10 Mountain Hill Investment Partners Corp. 6.78% 75,485 $12.0M
11 Colrain Capital LLC 6.20% 115,429 $18.3M
12 DSC Meridian Capital LP 5.48% 147,699 $23.4M
13 140 Summer Partners LP 5.29% 467,231 $74.1M
14 Cobalt Capital Management, INC. 5.08% 45,000 $7.1M
15 Nitor Capital Management LLC 4.99% 46,593 $7.4M
16 Reaves W H & Co Inc 4.98% 2,070,918 $328.5M
17 Corvex Management LP 4.94% 1,020,228 $161.8M
18 King Street Capital Management, L.P. 4.93% 59,000 $9.4M
19 Haven Capital Group, Inc. 4.77% 17,728 $5.9M
20 Appaloosa LP 4.55% 2,215,272 $351.4M
21 Kirr Marbach & Co LLC /In/ 4.35% 162,896 $25.8M
22 Arvin Capital Management LP 4.22% 203,896 $32.3M
23 Sovereign's Capital Management, LLC 4.01% 37,896 $6.0M
24 Merewether Investment Management, LP 3.78% 1,265,438 $200.7M
25 Ripple Effect Asset Management LP 3.76% 102,300 $16.2M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Vistra Corp (VST)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VST?

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added VST than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for VST?

More buyers than sellers — 60% buying: Last quarter: 882 funds were net buyers (241 opened a brand new position + 641 added to an existing one). Only 586 were sellers (438 trimmed + 148 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for VST holders?

Elite ownership — 58% AUM from top-100 funds: 69 of 1399 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 58% of total institutional value in VST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held VST?

42% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 588 out of 1,410 hedge funds have held VST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Vistra Corp (VST) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VST has moved -5.0% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to -5.9% for the XLU sector ETF — an outperformance of +0.9%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), VST has gained -11.3% vs -8.1% for XLU. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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