Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

2K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VLO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +112
Streak
7Q ▲
Buyers last Q
53%

Smart Money Signals — VLO

Based on 1977 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 7 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 7 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VLO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
1,977 hedge funds hold VLO right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +35% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+512 new funds entered over the past year (+35% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 53% buying

977 buying864 selling
Last quarter: 977 funds bought or added vs 864 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-131 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 205 → 219 → 378 → 247. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 63% conviction (2yr+) ■ 16% medium ■ 21% new
1,240 out of 1,977 hedge funds have held VLO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +53%, value +6%

Value
+5%
Shares
+52%
Last quarter: funds added +53% more shares while total portfolio value only changed +6%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

153 → 205 → 219 → 378 → 247 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 205 → 219 → 378 → 247. A growing number of institutions are discovering VLO each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 69% veterans vs 23% newcomers

■ 69% veterans ■ 8% 1-2yr ■ 23% new
Entry-cohort mix of 2,042 holders: 1,407 (69%) are 2+ year veterans, 171 entered 1–2 years ago, and 464 (23%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 63% AUM from top-100 funds

63% from top-100 AUM funds
67 of 1972 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 63% of total institutional value in VLO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
4.0
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.0/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VLO

In 2026 Q2, 977 hedge funds were net buyers of VLO (247 opened a new position, 730 added to an existing one), while 864 reduced or exited (729 trimmed, 135 sold completely) — a 53% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 7 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 63% of total institutional value in VLO is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +112 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 1977.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VLO

How many hedge funds hold VLO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VLO vs. share price

Market Analysis: VLO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VLO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VLO has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLE) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 85d ago
VLO
+51.0%
XLE
+18.3%

VLO outperformed XLE by +32.7% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 40d ago
VLO
+15.1%
XLE
+1.5%

Since the filing became public, VLO outperformed XLE by +13.6% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Strong Institutional Conviction

Multiple high-quality funds hold meaningful positions with strong conviction.

64 top-rated funds 23 high-conviction
Consensus
7.9
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
6.2
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VLO
2K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VLO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 1960 1865 5.09%
13F Shares 251M 258M -2.82%
Total Value $62.58B $59.76B 4.73%
New Positions 241 378 -137
Increased Positions 708 642 +66
Closed Positions 141 122 +19
Reduced Positions 710 598 +112
Total Calls 38 36 5.56%
Total Puts 32 34 -5.88%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.84 0.94 Neutral

Statistics: VLO

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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

2K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VLO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 VLO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 CSU Producer Resources, Inc. 21.50% 25,059 $6.5M
2 Solus Alternative Asset Management LP 14.43% 189,577 $49.4M
3 William B. Walkup & Associates, Inc. 9.41% 75,038 $19.5M
4 Praetorian PR LLC 6.22% 75,000 $19.5M
5 Paradiem, LLC 4.52% 80,466 $21.0M
6 Arrow Capital Pty Ltd 4.43% 20,000 $5.2M
7 CrossGen Wealth, LLC 4.02% 19,854 $5.2M
8 Westchester Capital Management, Inc. 3.91% 83,284 $21.7M
9 Adams Natural Resources Fund, INC. 3.88% 113,700 $29.6M
10 Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. 3.76% 65,933 $17.2M
11 SIR Capital Management, L.P. 3.72% 124,319 $32.4M
12 Summit Street Capital Management, LLC 3.66% 100,073 $26.1M
13 Westbourne Investment Advisors, Inc. 3.63% 50,530 $13.2M
14 JCIC Asset Management Inc. 3.57% 47,125 $11.6M
15 O'Brien Greene & Co. Inc 3.49% 48,626 $12.7M
16 Bell & Brown Wealth Advisors, LLC 3.21% 40,713 $10.6M
17 Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. 3.13% 34,484 $9.0M
18 S.E.E.D. Planning Group LLC 3.06% 44,572 $11.6M
19 United Capital Management of KS, Inc. 2.85% 83,521 $21.8M
20 M3 Wealth Management, LLC 2.79% 16,512 $4.3M
21 Fusion Capital, LLC 2.73% 45,145 $11.8M
22 Sagefield Capital LP 2.68% 138,920 $36.2M
23 Royal Palms Capital LLC 2.62% 11,434 $3.0M
24 Montrusco Bolton Investments INC. 2.57% 637,430 $166.0M
25 Cincinnati Financial Corp 2.56% 514,640 $134.0M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VLO?

Buying streak — 7 quarters in a row: For 7 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VLO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for VLO?

Slight buying edge — 53% buying: Last quarter: 977 funds bought or added vs 864 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for VLO holders?

Elite ownership — 63% AUM from top-100 funds: 67 of 1972 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 63% of total institutional value in VLO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held VLO?

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1,240 out of 1,977 hedge funds have held VLO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VLO has moved +15.1% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to +1.5% for the XLE sector ETF — an outperformance of +13.6%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), VLO has gained +51.0% vs +18.3% for XLE. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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