Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

2K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VLO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +255
Streak
6Q ▲
Buyers last Q
59%

Smart Money Signals — VLO

Based on 1861 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 6 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 6 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VLO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
1,861 hedge funds hold VLO right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +29% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+421 new funds entered over the past year (+29% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 59% buying

1032 buying732 selling
Last quarter: 1,032 funds bought or added vs 732 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+158 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new VLO position: 151 → 204 → 218 → 376. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

64% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 64% conviction (2yr+) ■ 16% medium ■ 20% new
1,186 out of 1,861 hedge funds have held VLO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+42% value, -5% shares)

Value
+42%
Shares
-4%
Last quarter: total value of institutional VLO holdings rose +42% even though funds reduced share count by 5%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

148 → 151 → 204 → 218 → 376 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 151 → 204 → 218 → 376. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 70% veterans vs 21% newcomers

■ 70% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 21% new
Entry-cohort mix of 1,921 holders: 1,338 (70%) are 2+ year veterans, 184 entered 1–2 years ago, and 399 (21%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 49% AUM from top-100 funds

49% from top-100 AUM funds
64 of 1852 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 49% of total institutional value in VLO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.9
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VLO

In 2026 Q1, 1032 hedge funds were net buyers of VLO (376 opened a new position, 656 added to an existing one), while 732 reduced or exited (611 trimmed, 121 sold completely) — a 59% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 6 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 49% of total institutional value in VLO is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +255 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 1861.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VLO

How many hedge funds hold VLO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VLO vs. share price

Market Analysis: VLO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VLO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VLO has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLE) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 75d ago
VLO
+4.7%
XLE
-6.1%

VLO outperformed XLE by +10.8% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 30d ago
VLO
+3.7%
XLE
-3.2%

Since the filing became public, VLO outperformed XLE by +6.9% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Strong Institutional Conviction

Multiple high-quality funds hold meaningful positions with strong conviction.

102 top-rated funds 32 high-conviction
Consensus
8.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
7.4
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VLO
2K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VLO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 1840 1606 14.57%
13F Shares 253M 265M -4.64%
Total Value $58.98B $41.50B 42.12%
New Positions 366 218 +148
Increased Positions 639 565 +74
Closed Positions 132 142 -10
Reduced Positions 590 569 +21
Total Calls 35 30 16.67%
Total Puts 34 36 -5.56%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.97 1.2 Neutral

Statistics: VLO

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

2K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VLO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 VLO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 CSU Producer Resources, Inc. 17.75% 25,059 $6.2M
2 Solus Alternative Asset Management LP 12.59% 189,577 $46.8M
3 William B. Walkup & Associates, Inc. 5.96% 75,595 $10.0M
4 Praetorian PR LLC 5.39% 60,000 $14.8M
5 Marvin & Palmer Associates Inc 4.79% 16,210 $4.0M
6 Summit Street Capital Management, LLC 4.46% 127,602 $31.5M
7 CrossGen Wealth, LLC 4.43% 20,424 $5.0M
8 Cambridge Financial Group, Inc. 4.31% 46,679 $11.5M
9 Westchester Capital Management, Inc. 4.26% 85,673 $21.2M
10 Axecap Investments, LLC 4.10% 24,124 $6.0M
11 Westbourne Investment Advisors, Inc. 3.98% 55,301 $13.7M
12 Paradiem, LLC 3.84% 70,511 $17.4M
13 Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. 3.72% 52,586 $13.0M
14 JCIC Asset Management Inc. 3.57% 47,125 $11.6M
15 O'Brien Greene & Co. Inc 3.54% 50,586 $12.5M
16 Montrusco Bolton Investments INC. 3.50% 936,233 $231.3M
17 Encore Global Management, LP 3.42% 19,800 $4.9M
18 Bell & Brown Wealth Advisors, LLC 3.40% 42,419 $10.5M
19 S.E.E.D. Planning Group LLC 3.31% 46,171 $11.4M
20 M3 Wealth Management, LLC 3.21% 16,893 $4.2M
21 United Capital Management of KS, Inc. 3.19% 85,234 $21.1M
22 Fusion Capital, LLC 2.99% 44,858 $11.1M
23 Quantessence Capital LLC 2.96% 2,458 $607K
24 Adams Natural Resources Fund, INC. 2.72% 95,000 $23.5M
25 Signature Wealth Management Group 2.70% 28,738 $7.1M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Valero Energy Corp (VLO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VLO?

Buying streak — 6 quarters in a row: For 6 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VLO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for VLO?

Slight buying edge — 59% buying: Last quarter: 1,032 funds bought or added vs 732 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for VLO holders?

Elite ownership — 49% AUM from top-100 funds: 64 of 1852 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 49% of total institutional value in VLO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held VLO?

64% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1,186 out of 1,861 hedge funds have held VLO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VLO has moved +3.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to -3.2% for the XLE sector ETF — an outperformance of +6.9%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), VLO has gained +4.7% vs -6.1% for XLE. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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