Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

VANGUARD BD INDEX FDS (VFWAX)

2 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VFWAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -1
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
50%

Smart Money Signals — VFWAX

Based on 2 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their VFWAX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻

Below peak — only 67% of 3.0Y high

67% of all-time peak
Only 2 funds hold VFWAX today versus a peak of 3 funds at 2025 Q3 — just 67% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding VFWAX is almost the same as a year ago (+0 funds, +0% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 50% buying

1 buying1 selling
Last quarter: 1 funds bought or added vs 1 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~0 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 1 → 1 → 1 → 0. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

50% of holders stayed for 2+ years

50% conviction (2yr+) 0% medium 50% new
1 out of 2 hedge funds have held VFWAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
⚠️

Saturation — most institutions already know this story

1 → 1 → 1 → 1 → 0 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 1 → 1 → 1 → 0. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 50% of holders stayed 2+ years

50% veterans 0% 1-2yr 50% new
Of 2 current holders: 1 (50%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 0% AUM from top-100

0% from top-100 AUM funds
0 of 2 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 0% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
2.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VFWAX

In 2026 Q1, 1 hedge fund were net buyers of VFWAX (1 added to existing positions), while 1 reduced or exited (1 sold completely) — a 50% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. Net fund flow last quarter: -1 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 2.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VFWAX

How many hedge funds hold VFWAX — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VFWAX vs. share price

Market Analysis: VFWAX

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VFWAX

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy VANGUARD BD INDEX FDS (VFWAX) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VFWAX has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 58d ago
VFWAX
+12.0%
SPY
+15.4%

VFWAX outperformed SPY by -3.4% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 13d ago
VFWAX
+3.3%
SPY
+1.5%

Since the filing became public, VFWAX outperformed SPY by +1.8% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

0 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
0.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VFWAX
2 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VFWAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 2 3 -33.33%
13F Shares 8K 13K -37.02%
Total Value $389K $608K -35.97%
New Positions 0 1 -1
Increased Positions 1 2 -1
Closed Positions 1 1 -
Reduced Positions 0 0 -
Total Calls 0 0 -
Total Puts 0 0 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: VFWAX

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

2 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VFWAX. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 2 institutional holders of VFWAX — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 FULTON BANK, N.A. 0.01% 7,771 $361K
2 McMillan Office, Inc. 0.00% 599 $28K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — VANGUARD BD INDEX FDS (VFWAX)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VFWAX?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their VFWAX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for VFWAX?

Slight buying edge — 50% buying: Last quarter: 1 funds bought or added vs 1 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for VFWAX holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 0% AUM from top-100: 0 of 2 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 0% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held VFWAX?

50% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1 out of 2 hedge funds have held VFWAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy VANGUARD BD INDEX FDS (VFWAX) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VFWAX has moved +3.3% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +1.5% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of +1.8%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), VFWAX has gained +12.0% vs +15.4% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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