Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Vale S A (VALE)

557 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in VALE. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +32
Streak
3Q ▲
Buyers last Q
56%

Smart Money Signals — VALE

Based on 561 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VALE than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
561 hedge funds hold VALE right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +13% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+65 new funds entered over the past year (+13% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 56% buying

329 buying258 selling
Last quarter: 329 funds bought or added vs 258 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+6 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new VALE position: 64 → 82 → 106 → 112. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

60% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 60% conviction (2yr+) ■ 17% medium ■ 23% new
336 out of 561 hedge funds have held VALE for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Value +24% but shares only +4% — price-driven

Value
+24%
Shares
+3%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +24%, but actual share count only changed +4%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

80 → 64 → 82 → 106 → 112 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 64 → 82 → 106 → 112. A growing number of institutions are discovering VALE each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 66% veterans vs 24% newcomers

■ 66% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 24% new
Entry-cohort mix of 612 holders: 406 (66%) are 2+ year veterans, 61 entered 1–2 years ago, and 145 (24%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 55% AUM from top-100 funds

55% from top-100 AUM funds
54 of 553 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 55% of total institutional value in VALE. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — VALE

In 2026 Q1, 329 hedge funds were net buyers of VALE (112 opened a new position, 217 added to an existing one), while 258 reduced or exited (178 trimmed, 80 sold completely) — a 56% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 3 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 55% of total institutional value in VALE is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +32 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 561.

Hedge Fund Ownership: VALE

How many hedge funds hold VALE — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of VALE vs. share price

Market Analysis: VALE

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: VALE

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Vale S A (VALE) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much VALE has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
VALE
-0.2%
SPY
+15.9%

VALE outperformed SPY by -16.1% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
VALE
-2.7%
SPY
+2.0%

Since the filing became public, VALE outperformed SPY by -4.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

31 top-rated funds 5 high-conviction
Consensus
6.5
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.5
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: VALE
557 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in VALE. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 557 529 5.29%
13F Shares 958M 926M 3.46%
Total Value $15.00B $12.05B 24.4%
New Positions 111 106 +5
Increased Positions 207 201 +6
Closed Positions 83 70 +13
Reduced Positions 162 143 +19
Total Calls 29 26 11.54%
Total Puts 29 27 7.41%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 1.04 Neutral

Statistics: VALE

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

557 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in VALE. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 VALE holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Rwc Asset Advisors (us) LLC 16.53% 4,824,901 $76.8M
2 Turim 21 Investimentos Ltda. 10.69% 2,678,876 $42.6M
3 Moneda S.A. Administradora General de Fondos 9.48% 730,578 $11.6M
4 SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda 7.32% 5,539,608 $88.1M
5 Lifetime Wealth Management P.C. 4.81% 531,278 $8.5M
6 Kiltearn Partners LLP 4.11% 959,336 $15.3M
7 ION Fund Management Ltd 3.84% 1,706,000 $27.1M
8 Itau Unibanco Holding S.A. 3.18% 10,122,584 $132.7M
9 Surience Private Wealth LLC 2.49% 146,001 $2.3M
10 Mondrian Investment Partners LTD 2.37% 9,968,420 $158.6M
11 Gemsstock Ltd. 2.14% 1,273,217 $20.3M
12 Abbington Investment Group 2.01% 216,868 $3.5M
13 Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda 1.97% 657,036 $10.5M
14 Todd Asset Management LLC 1.66% 5,325,967 $84.7M
15 Greater Midwest Financial Group, LLC 1.60% 186,895 $3.0M
16 RWC Asset Management LLP 1.45% 2,185,070 $34.8M
17 Larch Capital Partners LLC 1.44% 626,504 $10.0M
18 Orbis Allan Gray Ltd 1.30% 19,372,500 $308.2M
19 Greenline Partners, LLC 1.14% 665,525 $10.6M
20 Commons Capital, LLC 1.06% 80,000 $1.3M
21 Himension Capital (singapore) PTE. LTD. 0.98% 804,708 $12.8M
22 Artemis Investment Management LLP 0.98% 5,808,527 $92.4M
23 ClearAlpha Technologies LP 0.96% 29,256 $465K
24 Chesapeake Capital Corp /Il/ 0.89% 77,846 $1.2M
25 Myriad Asset Management Advisors LLC 0.87% 185,583 $3.0M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Vale S A (VALE)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for VALE?

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added VALE than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for VALE?

Slight buying edge — 56% buying: Last quarter: 329 funds bought or added vs 258 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for VALE holders?

Elite ownership — 55% AUM from top-100 funds: 54 of 553 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 55% of total institutional value in VALE. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held VALE?

60% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 336 out of 561 hedge funds have held VALE for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Vale S A (VALE) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, VALE has moved -2.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +2.0% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of -4.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), VALE has gained -0.2% vs +15.9% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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