Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Upstart Hldgs Inc (UPST)

340 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in UPST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -50
Streak
3Q ▼
Buyers last Q
47%

Smart Money Signals — UPST

Based on 342 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their UPST positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 81% of 3.0Y peak

81% of all-time peak
342 funds currently hold this stock — 81% of the 3.0-year high of 422 funds (reached 2025 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 12% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
46 fewer hedge funds hold UPST compared to a year ago (-12% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying

190 buying216 selling
Last quarter: 216 funds reduced or exited vs 190 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-23 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 82 → 75 → 76 → 53. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 57% conviction (2yr+) ■ 22% medium ■ 21% new
196 out of 342 hedge funds have held UPST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -9%, value -47%

Value
-47%
Shares
-9%
Last quarter: funds added -9% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -47%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

60 → 82 → 75 → 76 → 53 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 82 → 75 → 76 → 53. UPST is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 65% veterans vs 22% newcomers

■ 65% veterans ■ 12% 1-2yr ■ 22% new
Entry-cohort mix of 388 holders: 254 (65%) are 2+ year veterans, 48 entered 1–2 years ago, and 86 (22%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 40% AUM from top-100 funds

40% from top-100 AUM funds
48 of 337 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 40% of total institutional value in UPST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
2.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — UPST

In 2026 Q1, 190 hedge funds were net buyers of UPST (53 opened a new position, 137 added to an existing one), while 216 reduced or exited (113 trimmed, 103 sold completely) — a 47% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. This extends a 3-quarter selling streak, suggesting sustained institutional caution. 40% of total institutional value in UPST is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -50 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 342.

Hedge Fund Ownership: UPST

How many hedge funds hold UPST — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of UPST vs. share price

Market Analysis: UPST

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: UPST

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Upstart Hldgs Inc (UPST) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much UPST has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLF) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 79d ago
UPST
+18.8%
XLF
+9.5%

UPST outperformed XLF by +9.3% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 34d ago
UPST
+3.2%
XLF
+5.8%

Since the filing became public, UPST outperformed XLF by -2.6% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

27 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
6.3
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: UPST
340 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in UPST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 340 392 -13.27%
13F Shares 74M 82M -9.35%
Total Value $1.89B $3.58B -47.16%
New Positions 52 76 -24
Increased Positions 128 116 +12
Closed Positions 104 93 +11
Reduced Positions 97 141 -44
Total Calls 24 28 -14.29%
Total Puts 27 31 -12.9%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.12 1.11 Neutral

Statistics: UPST

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

340 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in UPST. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 UPST holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Halter Ferguson Financial Inc. 8.26% 1,467,360 $37.6M
2 REX Advisers, LLC 2.19% 28,300 $726K
3 KADENSA CAPITAL Ltd 2.11% 589,871 $15.1M
4 Neo Ivy Capital Management 0.70% 102,953 $2.6M
5 Sandler Capital Management 0.69% 52,000 $1.3M
6 Rare Wolf Capital LLC 0.49% 29,277 $751K
7 GC Wealth Management RIA, LLC 0.37% 344,646 $8.8M
8 Odyssean, LLC 0.34% 35,883 $920K
9 Nebula Research & Development LLC 0.33% 60,689 $3.9M
10 WMG Financial Advisors, LLC 0.28% 25,727 $660K
11 Integrated Financial Solutions, Inc. 0.26% 14,510 $372K
12 Headlands Technologies LLC 0.23% 79,501 $2.0M
13 nVerses Capital, LLC 0.22% 9,383 $241K
14 Fairbanks Capital Management, Inc. 0.21% 12,800 $328K
15 Havemeyer Place LP 0.18% 59,216 $1.5M
16 Manchester Capital Management LLC 0.17% 44,934 $1.2M
17 Clear Street Group Inc. 0.16% 1,555,206 $39.9M
18 Bridgefront Capital, LLC 0.16% 25,038 $642K
19 PDT Partners, LLC 0.15% 100,041 $2.6M
20 Intellectus Partners, LLC 0.14% 27,250 $699K
21 Kercheville Advisors, LLC 0.12% 15,000 $385K
22 Intercapital, LLC 0.12% 14,000 $359K
23 Quantbot Technologies LP 0.11% 106,086 $2.7M
24 Aigen Investment Management, LP 0.11% 16,471 $422K
25 Gator Capital Management, LLC 0.10% 20,000 $513K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Upstart Hldgs Inc (UPST)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for UPST?

Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their UPST positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for UPST?

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying: Last quarter: 216 funds reduced or exited vs 190 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for UPST holders?

Elite ownership — 40% AUM from top-100 funds: 48 of 337 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 40% of total institutional value in UPST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held UPST?

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 196 out of 342 hedge funds have held UPST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Upstart Hldgs Inc (UPST) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, UPST has moved +3.2% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +5.8% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of -2.6%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), UPST has gained +18.8% vs +9.5% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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