Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD)

58 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TVRD. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -7
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
34%

Smart Money Signals — TVRD

Based on 58 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TVRD positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 89% of 3.0Y peak

89% of all-time peak
58 funds currently hold this stock — 89% of the 3.0-year high of 65 funds (reached 2026 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +26% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+12 new funds entered over the past year (+26% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🔴

Heavy selling pressure — only 34% buying

23 buying45 selling
Last quarter: 45 funds sold vs only 23 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~16 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 25 → 17 → 16 → 16. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔄

Mostly new holders — 50% entered in last year

3% conviction (2yr+) 47% medium 50% new
Only 2 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -18%, value -51%

Value
-51%
Shares
-17%
Last quarter: funds added -18% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -51%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

46 → 25 → 17 → 16 → 16 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 25 → 17 → 16 → 16. TVRD is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🌱

Early stage — 97% of holders entered in last year

3% veterans 0% 1-2yr 97% new
Of 58 current holders: 56 (97%) entered in the past year, only 2 (3%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.

Strong quality — 23% AUM from major funds

23% from top-100 AUM funds
17 of 58 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 23% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
4.6
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.6/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TVRD

In 2026 Q2, 23 hedge funds were net buyers of TVRD (16 opened a new position, 7 added to an existing one), while 45 reduced or exited (22 trimmed, 23 sold completely) — a 34% buyer ratio, indicating net institutional distribution. 23% of total institutional value in TVRD is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -7 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 58.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TVRD

How many hedge funds hold TVRD — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TVRD vs. share price

Market Analysis: TVRD

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TVRD

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much TVRD has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLV) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 85d ago
TVRD
-15.3%
XLV
+6.9%

TVRD outperformed XLV by -22.2% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 40d ago
TVRD
-15.3%
XLV
+1.4%

Since the filing became public, TVRD outperformed XLV by -16.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

5 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
3.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TVRD
58 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TVRD. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 58 65 -10.77%
13F Shares 2M 3M -17.53%
Total Value $4M $9M -50.98%
New Positions 16 16 -
Increased Positions 7 18 -11
Closed Positions 23 15 +8
Reduced Positions 22 16 +6
Total Calls 0 0 -
Total Puts 0 0 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: TVRD

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

58 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TVRD. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 TVRD holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 American Financial Group Inc 0.15% 223,659 $425K
2 Duncan Williams Asset Management, LLC 0.03% 63,241 $120K
3 Slate Path Capital LP 0.02% 704,118 $1.3M
4 Diadema Partners LP 0.00% 16,607 $32K
5 Persistent Asset Partners Ltd 0.00% 4,253 $8K
6 Silvercrest Asset Management Group LLC 0.00% 101,034 $192K
7 XTX Topco Ltd 0.00% 14,868 $28K
8 Renaissance Technologies LLC 0.00% 91,409 $174K
9 Tower Research Capital LLC (TRC) 0.00% 3,275 $6K
10 Savant Capital, LLC 0.00% 19,462 $49K
11 Arax Advisory Partners 0.00% 11,003 $21K
12 Russell Investments Group, Ltd. 0.00% 43,228 $82K
13 Brown Advisory Inc 0.00% 11,200 $21K
14 UBS Group AG 0.00% 111,133 $211K
15 Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co 0.00% 44,710 $85K
16 Qube Research & Technologies Ltd 0.00% 10,210 $19K
17 Aqr Capital Management LLC 0.00% 27,096 $51K
18 Vanguard Capital Management LLC 0.00% 344,382 $654K
19 Morgan Stanley 0.00% 77,845 $148K
20 TD Private Client Wealth LLC 0.00% 149
21 Susquehanna International Group, LLP 0.00% 33,165 $63K
22 LRI Investments, LLC 0.00% 27
23 PNC Financial Services Group, INC. 0.00% 3,518 $7K
24 EverSource Wealth Advisors, LLC 0.00% 46
25 GAMMA Investing LLC 0.00% 40
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TVRD?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TVRD positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for TVRD?

Heavy selling pressure — only 34% buying: Last quarter: 45 funds sold vs only 23 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.

What is the fund quality score for TVRD holders?

Strong quality — 23% AUM from major funds: 17 of 58 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 23% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held TVRD?

Mostly new holders — 50% entered in last year: Only 2 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.

Is it too late to buy Tvardi Therapeutics Inc (TVRD) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, TVRD has moved -15.3% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to +1.4% for the XLV sector ETF — an outperformance of -16.7%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), TVRD has gained -15.3% vs +6.9% for XLV. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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