Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Toast Inc (TOST)

757 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TOST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -33
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
53%

Smart Money Signals — TOST

Based on 762 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TOST positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (96% of max)

96% of all-time peak
762 hedge funds hold TOST right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +17% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+108 new funds entered over the past year (+17% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 53% buying

431 buying384 selling
Last quarter: 431 funds bought or added vs 384 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-40 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 156 → 118 → 154 → 114. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

44% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 44% conviction (2yr+) ■ 30% medium ■ 25% new
338 out of 762 hedge funds have held TOST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -5%, value -29%

Value
-29%
Shares
-5%
Last quarter: funds added -5% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -29%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~114 new funds/quarter

120 → 156 → 118 → 154 → 114 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 156 → 118 → 154 → 114. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 50% veterans vs 33% newcomers

■ 50% veterans ■ 17% 1-2yr ■ 33% new
Entry-cohort mix of 796 holders: 399 (50%) are 2+ year veterans, 136 entered 1–2 years ago, and 261 (33%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 48% AUM from top-100 funds

48% from top-100 AUM funds
63 of 754 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 48% of total institutional value in TOST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.6
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TOST

In 2026 Q1, 431 hedge funds were net buyers of TOST (114 opened a new position, 317 added to an existing one), while 384 reduced or exited (237 trimmed, 147 sold completely) — a 53% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. 48% of total institutional value in TOST is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -33 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 762.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TOST

How many hedge funds hold TOST — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TOST vs. share price

Market Analysis: TOST

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TOST

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Toast Inc (TOST) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much TOST has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLK) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 77d ago
TOST
-4.2%
XLK
+41.3%

TOST outperformed XLK by -45.5% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 32d ago
TOST
+10.2%
XLK
+6.5%

Since the filing became public, TOST outperformed XLK by +3.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

49 top-rated funds 10 high-conviction
Consensus
7.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
5.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TOST
757 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TOST. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 757 795 -4.78%
13F Shares 449M 475M -5.3%
Total Value $11.85B $16.68B -28.98%
New Positions 112 154 -42
Increased Positions 306 288 +18
Closed Positions 150 86 +64
Reduced Positions 227 247 -20
Total Calls 27 21 28.57%
Total Puts 15 21 -28.57%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.56 1.0 Bullish

Statistics: TOST

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

757 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TOST. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 TOST holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 HMI Capital Management, L.P. 13.41% 3,814,983 $101.1M
2 Lead Edge Capital Management, LLC 8.49% 1,306,362 $34.6M
3 Hamilton Lane Advisors LLC 7.59% 400,490 $10.6M
4 Xn LP 6.34% 6,509,924 $172.6M
5 ValueAct Holdings, L.P. 5.98% 12,895,438 $341.9M
6 Greenvale Capital LLP 5.81% 2,000,000 $53.0M
7 12 West Capital Management LP 5.58% 1,247,840 $33.1M
8 Glynn Capital Management LLC 5.46% 430,893 $11.4M
9 Alta Fox Capital Management, LLC 5.19% 740,300 $19.6M
10 Arohi Asset Management PTE Ltd. 5.09% 528,740 $14.0M
11 Mayar Capital Ltd. 4.34% 137,300 $3.6M
12 Shannon River Fund Management LLC 3.70% 732,027 $19.4M
13 Nixon Capital, LLC 3.44% 379,501 $10.1M
14 Meritage Group LP 3.41% 3,410,223 $90.4M
15 Firsthand Capital Management, Inc. 3.39% 60,000 $1.6M
16 Whetstone Capital Advisors, LLC 3.09% 336,049 $8.9M
17 Flight Deck Capital, LP 3.01% 156,162 $4.1M
18 Independent Family Office, LLC 2.73% 250,000 $6.6M
19 Crawford Fund Management, LLC 2.67% 523,836 $13.9M
20 Apis Capital Advisors, LLC 2.58% 630,000 $16.7M
21 Caden Capital Partners, LP 2.56% 7,841 $208K
22 Capital Impact Advisors, LLC 2.55% 238,280 $6.3M
23 Cander Asset Management LP 2.46% 516,138 $13.7M
24 Greenhouse Funds LLLP 2.34% 1,972,912 $52.3M
25 Ellerson Group Inc /Adv 2.14% 123,280 $3.3M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Toast Inc (TOST)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TOST?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TOST positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for TOST?

Slight buying edge — 53% buying: Last quarter: 431 funds bought or added vs 384 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for TOST holders?

Elite ownership — 48% AUM from top-100 funds: 63 of 754 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 48% of total institutional value in TOST. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held TOST?

44% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 338 out of 762 hedge funds have held TOST for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Toast Inc (TOST) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, TOST has moved +10.2% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +6.5% for the XLK sector ETF — an outperformance of +3.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), TOST has gained -4.2% vs +41.3% for XLK. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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