Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

769 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +48
Streak
4Q ▲
Buyers last Q
57%

Smart Money Signals — TOL

Based on 775 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
775 hedge funds hold TOL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +19% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+126 new funds entered over the past year (+19% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 57% buying

419 buying320 selling
Last quarter: 419 funds bought or added vs 320 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+16 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new TOL position: 117 → 132 → 110 → 126. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 57% conviction (2yr+) ■ 24% medium ■ 19% new
442 out of 775 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~126 new funds/quarter

96 → 117 → 132 → 110 → 126 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 117 → 132 → 110 → 126. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 62% veterans vs 22% newcomers

■ 62% veterans ■ 15% 1-2yr ■ 22% new
Entry-cohort mix of 804 holders: 502 (62%) are 2+ year veterans, 122 entered 1–2 years ago, and 180 (22%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 44% AUM from top-100 funds

44% from top-100 AUM funds
56 of 773 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 44% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TOL

In 2026 Q1, 419 hedge funds were net buyers of TOL (126 opened a new position, 293 added to an existing one), while 320 reduced or exited (242 trimmed, 78 sold completely) — a 57% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 4 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 44% of total institutional value in TOL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +48 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 775.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TOL

How many hedge funds hold TOL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TOL vs. share price

Market Analysis: TOL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TOL

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much TOL has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
TOL
+9.0%
XLY
+8.9%

TOL outperformed XLY by +0.1% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
TOL
+17.8%
XLY
+1.9%

Since the filing became public, TOL outperformed XLY by +15.9% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

49 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
7.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TOL
769 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 769 727 5.78%
13F Shares 85M 88M -3.66%
Total Value $11.19B $11.40B -1.81%
New Positions 124 110 +14
Increased Positions 287 229 +58
Closed Positions 82 95 -13
Reduced Positions 232 268 -36
Total Calls 13 20 -35.0%
Total Puts 17 18 -5.56%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.31 0.9 Bearish

Statistics: TOL

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

769 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TOL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 TOL holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Greenhaven Associates Inc 12.69% 5,645,309 $770.4M
2 Riverstone Advisors, LLC 6.16% 91,568 $12.5M
3 Baypointe Partners LLC 3.75% 20,000 $2.7M
4 NFC Investments, LLC 3.01% 79,138 $10.8M
5 Kettle Hill Capital Management, LLC 2.74% 80,222 $10.9M
6 Wedgewood Partners Inc 2.49% 88,275 $12.0M
7 Gallo Partners, LP 1.96% 7,507 $1.0M
8 Basswood Capital Management, L.L.C. 1.83% 284,288 $38.8M
9 Opinicus Capital, INC. 1.70% 17,623 $2.4M
10 De Lisle Partners LLP 1.55% 95,000 $13.0M
11 Trail Ridge Investment Advisors, LLC 1.55% 26,143 $3.6M
12 Hager Investment Management Services, LLC 1.38% 18,395 $2.5M
13 Byrne Asset Management LLC 1.28% 15,995 $2.2M
14 Anchor Capital Advisors LLC 1.27% 327,136 $44.6M
15 MRP Capital Investments, LLC 1.19% 9,988 $1.4M
16 Outfitters Financial LLC 1.17% 11,055 $1.5M
17 McLaughlin Asset Management, Inc. 1.15% 8,788 $1.2M
18 Junto Capital Management LP 1.13% 393,005 $53.6M
19 Cookson Peirce & Co Inc 1.09% 188,472 $25.7M
20 Shariaportfolio, INC. 1.08% 17,852 $2.4M
21 Brian Low Financial Group, LLC 1.04% 11,213 $1.5M
22 Lecap Asset Management Ltd 1.02% 19,904 $2.7M
23 Milford Funds Ltd 1.02% 354,987 $48.4M
24 Lyell Wealth Management, LP 1.00% 100,181 $13.7M
25 OMC Financial Services LTD 1.00% 18,918 $2.6M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Toll Brothers Inc (TOL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TOL?

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for TOL?

Slight buying edge — 57% buying: Last quarter: 419 funds bought or added vs 320 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for TOL holders?

Elite ownership — 44% AUM from top-100 funds: 56 of 773 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 44% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held TOL?

57% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 442 out of 775 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Toll Brothers Inc (TOL) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, TOL has moved +17.8% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +1.9% for the XLY sector ETF — an outperformance of +15.9%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), TOL has gained +9.0% vs +8.9% for XLY. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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