Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL)

722 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +12
Streak
2Q ▲
Buyers last Q
49%

Smart Money Signals — TOL

Based on 690 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
690 hedge funds hold TOL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding TOL is almost the same as a year ago (+22 funds, +3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying

336 buying353 selling
Last quarter: 353 funds reduced or exited vs 336 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-23 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 91 → 108 → 129 → 106. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

58% of holders stayed for 2+ years

58% conviction (2yr+) 24% medium 18% new
401 out of 690 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

91 → 91 → 108 → 129 → 106 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 91 → 108 → 129 → 106. A growing number of institutions are discovering TOL each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 63% of holders stayed 2+ years

63% veterans 16% 1-2yr 21% new
Of 722 current holders: 453 (63%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds

50% from top-100 AUM funds
42 of 690 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.6
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TOL

How many hedge funds hold TOL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TOL vs. share price

Market Analysis: TOL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TOL

-- --
Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

83 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
8.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.4
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TOL
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 20 days 722 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TOL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 722 706 2.27%
13F Shares 87M 87M 0.6%
Total Value $11.32B $11.92B -5.05%
New Positions 109 130 -21
Increased Positions 264 288 -24
Closed Positions 97 72 +25
Reduced Positions 304 245 +59
Total Calls 20 19 5.26%
Total Puts 18 18 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.9 0.95 Neutral

Statistics: TOL

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Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

722 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TOL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

Top 25 institutional holders of TOL — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 GREENHAVEN ASSOCIATES INC 12.69% 5,645,309 $770.4M
2 Riverstone Advisors, LLC 6.16% 91,568 $12.5M
3 DEROY & DEVEREAUX PRIVATE INVESTMENT COUNSEL INC 1.30% 199,230 $27K
4 DELPHI MANAGEMENT INC /MA/ 1.29% 7,891 $1K
5 Byrne Asset Management LLC 1.28% 15,995 $2.2M
6 OUTFITTERS FINANCIAL LLC 1.17% 11,055 $1.5M
7 McLaughlin Asset Management, Inc. 1.15% 8,788 $1.2M
8 BRIAN LOW FINANCIAL GROUP, LLC 1.04% 11,213 $1.5M
9 GDS Wealth Management 0.83% 101,691 $13.9M
10 WINCAP FINANCIAL LLC 0.66% 7,228 $986K
11 CAPITAL MANAGEMENT CORP /VA 0.58% 24,835 $3.4M
12 Moran Wealth Management, LLC 0.37% 89,488 $12.2M
13 VAUGHAN NELSON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, L.P. 0.37% 268,356 $36.6M
14 HIGHLAND CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.35% 48,960 $6.7M
15 AssuredPartners Investment Advisors, LLC 0.30% 19,712 $2.7M
16 Northstar Advisory Group, LLC 0.29% 5,712 $780K
17 Hilltop National Bank 0.27% 8,414 $1.1M
18 INVESTMENT HOUSE LLC 0.27% 37,683 $5.1M
19 BROWN, LISLE/CUMMINGS, INC. 0.26% 7,600 $1.0M
20 Kaufman Rossin Wealth, LLC 0.25% 3,176 $433K
21 MOODY ALDRICH PARTNERS LLC 0.24% 9,658 $1.3M
22 EVOLVE PRIVATE WEALTH, LLC 0.24% 32,561 $4.4M
23 Union Bancaire Privee, UBP SA 0.22% 121,100 $15.8M
24 Oak Asset Management, LLC 0.22% 4,600 $628K
25 Revolve Wealth Partners, LLC 0.21% 11,792 $1.6M
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — TOLL BROTHERS INC (TOL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TOL?

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TOL than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for TOL?

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying: Last quarter: 353 funds reduced or exited vs 336 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for TOL holders?

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds: 42 of 690 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in TOL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held TOL?

58% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 401 out of 690 hedge funds have held TOL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.