Based on 13 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TOK positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻
Below peak — only 39% of 3.0Y high
39% of all-time peak
Only 13 funds hold TOK today versus a peak of 33 funds at 2024 Q3 — just 39% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
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Outflows — 35% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
7 fewer hedge funds hold TOK compared to a year ago (-35% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 29% buying
4 buying10 selling
Last quarter: 10 funds sold vs only 4 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~0 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 2 → 2 → 3 → 0. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
77% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 77% conviction (2yr+)
■ 23% medium
■ 0% new
10 out of 13 hedge funds have held TOK for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📊
Peak discovery — momentum slowing
2 → 2 → 2 → 3 → 0 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 2 → 2 → 3 → 0. TOK is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 85% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 85% veterans
■ 15% 1-2yr
■ 0% new
Of 13 current holders: 11 (85%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 8% AUM from top-100
8% from top-100 AUM funds
4 of 13 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 8% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 1.1/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.