Based on 49 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their TMF positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊
High ownership — 74% of 2.5Y peak
74% of all-time peak
49 funds currently hold this stock — 74% of the 2.5-year high of 66 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
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Outflows — 23% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
15 fewer hedge funds hold TMF compared to a year ago (-23% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 41% buying
24 buying34 selling
Last quarter: 34 funds reduced or exited vs 24 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~9 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 18 → 16 → 11 → 9. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
📌
Mixed — 27% long-term, 27% new
■ 27% conviction (2yr+)
■ 47% medium
■ 27% new
Of the 49 current holders: 13 (27%) held >2 years, 23 held 1–2 years, and 13 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
⚠️
Saturation — most institutions already know this story
19 → 18 → 16 → 11 → 9 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 18 → 16 → 11 → 9. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
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Mixed cohorts — 2% veterans, 31% new entrants
■ 2% veterans
■ 67% 1-2yr
■ 31% new
Of 55 current holders: 1 (2%) held 2+ years, 37 held 1–2 years, 17 (31%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 4% AUM from top-100
4% from top-100 AUM funds
6 of 49 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 4% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 2.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.