Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc (TERN)

313 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TERN. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +73
Streak
3Q ▲
Buyers last Q
67%

Smart Money Signals — TERN

Based on 316 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TERN than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
316 hedge funds hold TERN right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +129% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+178 new funds entered over the past year (+129% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 67% buying

246 buying123 selling
Last quarter: 246 funds were net buyers (132 opened a brand new position + 114 added to an existing one). Only 123 were sellers (64 trimmed + 59 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+9 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new TERN position: 23 → 27 → 123 → 132. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔄

Mostly new holders — 58% entered in last year

■ 21% conviction (2yr+) ■ 22% medium ■ 58% new
Only 65 funds (21%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💰

Value +36% but shares only +9% — price-driven

Value
+36%
Shares
+8%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +36%, but actual share count only changed +9%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

25 → 23 → 27 → 123 → 132 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 23 → 27 → 123 → 132. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🌱

Early stage — 55% of holders entered in last year

■ 32% veterans ■ 13% 1-2yr ■ 55% new
Of 350 current holders: 194 (55%) entered in the past year, only 112 (32%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
✅

Strong quality — 30% AUM from major funds

30% from top-100 AUM funds
49 of 316 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 30% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
6.4
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 6.4/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — TERN

In 2026 Q1, 246 hedge funds were net buyers of TERN (132 opened a new position, 114 added to an existing one), while 123 reduced or exited (64 trimmed, 59 sold completely) — a 67% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. This marks 3 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 30% of total institutional value in TERN is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +73 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 316.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TERN

How many hedge funds hold TERN — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TERN vs. share price

Market Analysis: TERN

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TERN

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

25 top-rated funds 15 high-conviction
Consensus
6.1
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
4.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TERN
313 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TERN. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 313 243 28.81%
13F Shares 133M 123M 8.44%
Total Value $6.68B $4.92B 35.87%
New Positions 129 123 +6
Increased Positions 112 71 +41
Closed Positions 59 21 +38
Reduced Positions 56 41 +15
Total Calls 29 6 383.33%
Total Puts 12 3 300.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.41 0.5 Bullish

Statistics: TERN

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

313 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TERN. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 TERN holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Acorn Capital Advisors, LLC 26.17% 1,746,264 $92.1M
2 Beryl Capital Management LLC 23.00% 478,755 $25.2M
3 Acuta Capital Partners, LLC 18.44% 495,772 $26.1M
4 KVP Capital Advisors, LP 17.32% 440,000 $23.2M
5 NEXTBio Capital Management LP 14.80% 604,534 $31.9M
6 Monashee Investment Management LLC 8.60% 300,000 $15.8M
7 Harvest Management LLC 6.58% 257,500 $13.6M
8 Slotnik Capital, LLC 6.49% 420,700 $22.2M
9 Ikarian Capital, LLC 6.23% 1,456,378 $76.8M
10 Jones Hill Capital LP 5.89% 521,237 $27.5M
11 Vivo Capital, LLC 5.87% 1,334,418 $70.4M
12 Ikarian Capital, LLC 5.14% 1,200,000 $63.3M
13 Catalio Capital Management, LP 4.50% 409,031 $21.6M
14 Chicago Capital Management, LLC 4.26% 129,225 $5.1M
15 Logos Global Management LP 3.95% 1,500,000 $79.1M
16 CIBRA Capital Ltd 3.85% 151,440 $8.0M
17 Eagle Health Investments LP 3.80% 412,497 $21.7M
18 Equitec Proprietary Markets, LLC 3.43% 121,800 $6.4M
19 Fort Baker Capital Management LP 3.40% 822,000 $43.3M
20 Nexpoint Asset Management, L.P. 3.20% 904,200 $47.7M
21 Octagon Capital Advisors LP 3.09% 530,000 $27.9M
22 Twin Securities, Inc. 2.97% 115,958 $6.1M
23 Avoro Capital Advisors LLC 2.95% 5,695,000 $300.2M
24 ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC 2.84% 914,699 $48.2M
25 Equitec Proprietary Markets, LLC 2.83% 100,500 $5.3M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Terns Pharmaceuticals Inc (TERN)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TERN?

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TERN than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for TERN?

More buyers than sellers — 67% buying: Last quarter: 246 funds were net buyers (132 opened a brand new position + 114 added to an existing one). Only 123 were sellers (64 trimmed + 59 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for TERN holders?

Strong quality — 30% AUM from major funds: 49 of 316 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 30% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held TERN?

Mostly new holders — 58% entered in last year: Only 65 funds (21%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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