Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

TERNS PHARMACEUTICALS INC (TERN)

248 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in TERN. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +102
Streak
2Q ▲
Buyers last Q
75%

Smart Money Signals — TERN

Based on 240 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TERN than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
240 hedge funds hold TERN right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +55% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+85 new funds entered over the past year (+55% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 75% buying

193 buying64 selling
Last quarter: 193 funds were net buyers (122 opened a brand new position + 71 added to an existing one). Only 64 were sellers (44 trimmed + 20 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+96 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new TERN position: 25 → 21 → 26 → 122. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
📌

Mixed — 28% long-term, 45% new

28% conviction (2yr+) 28% medium 45% new
Of the 240 current holders: 66 (28%) held >2 years, 67 held 1–2 years, and 107 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
💰

Value +635% but shares only +38% — price-driven

Value
+634%
Shares
+37%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +635%, but actual share count only changed +38%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

35 → 25 → 21 → 26 → 122 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 25 → 21 → 26 → 122. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
📊

Mixed cohorts — 39% veterans, 42% new entrants

39% veterans 19% 1-2yr 42% new
Of 248 current holders: 96 (39%) held 2+ years, 47 held 1–2 years, 105 (42%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.

Strong quality — 31% AUM from major funds

31% from top-100 AUM funds
33 of 240 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 31% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
4.8
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.8/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Hedge Fund Ownership: TERN

How many hedge funds hold TERN — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of TERN vs. share price

Market Analysis: TERN

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: TERN

-- --
Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

41 top-rated funds 15 high-conviction
Consensus
7.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
4.8
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: TERN
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 21 days 248 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in TERN. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 248 144 72.22%
13F Shares 123M 89M 37.51%
Total Value $4.92B $669M 634.6%
New Positions 123 28 +95
Increased Positions 86 49 +37
Closed Positions 20 12 +8
Reduced Positions 49 47 +2
Total Calls 6 4 50.0%
Total Puts 3 3 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.5 0.75 Bullish

Statistics: TERN

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Enterprise Value --
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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

248 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in TERN. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

Top 25 institutional holders of TERN — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Chicago Capital Management, LLC 4.26% 129,225 $5.1M
2 CIBRA Capital Ltd 3.85% 151,440 $8.0M
3 Cannon Global Investment Management, LLC 2.57% 25,000 $1.3M
4 FNY Investment Advisers, LLC 1.31% 56,720 $3K
5 Cannon Global Investment Management, LLC 0.93% 9,000 $474K
6 ALPINE ASSOCIATES MANAGEMENT INC. 0.44% 142,250 $7.5M
7 Abel Hall, LLC 0.09% 8,278 $436K
8 Pictet Asset Management Holding SA 0.09% 1,655,575 $87.3M
9 China Universal Asset Management Co., Ltd. 0.08% 18,869 $995K
10 Total Clarity Wealth Management, Inc. 0.05% 3,950 $208K
11 E. Ohman J:or Asset Management AB 0.03% 22,152 $1.2M
12 PROFUND ADVISORS LLC 0.01% 6,666 $351K
13 E Fund Management (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. 0.01% 337 $18K
14 STRS OHIO 0.00% 16,700 $880K
15 Sterling Capital Management LLC 0.00% 3,184 $168K
16 OPPENHEIMER ASSET MANAGEMENT INC. 0.00% 4,735 $250K
17 GAMMA Investing LLC 0.00% 926 $49K
18 Fortitude Family Office, LLC 0.00% 192 $10K
19 ProShare Advisors LLC 0.00% 25,571 $1.3M
20 GF FUND MANAGEMENT CO. LTD. 0.00% 2,023 $107K
21 IFP Advisors, Inc 0.00% 1,424 $75K
22 SG Americas Securities, LLC 0.00% 22,774 $1K
23 iA Global Asset Management Inc. 0.00% 1,073
24 Capital Advisors, Ltd. LLC 0.00% 89
25 SBI Securities Co., Ltd. 0.00% 372 $20K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — TERNS PHARMACEUTICALS INC (TERN)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for TERN?

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added TERN than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for TERN?

More buyers than sellers — 75% buying: Last quarter: 193 funds were net buyers (122 opened a brand new position + 71 added to an existing one). Only 64 were sellers (44 trimmed + 20 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for TERN holders?

Strong quality — 31% AUM from major funds: 33 of 240 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 31% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held TERN?

Mixed — 28% long-term, 45% new: Of the 240 current holders: 66 (28%) held >2 years, 67 held 1–2 years, and 107 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.