Based on 50 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added TDF than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
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At the ownership peak (100% of max)
100% of all-time peak
50 hedge funds hold TDF right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
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Steady growth — +14% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+6 new funds entered over the past year (+14% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
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More buyers than sellers — 61% buying
23 buying15 selling
Last quarter: 23 funds were net buyers (6 opened a brand new position + 17 added to an existing one). Only 15 were sellers (11 trimmed + 4 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~6 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 7 → 5 → 3 → 6. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
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62% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 62% conviction (2yr+)
■ 24% medium
■ 14% new
31 out of 50 hedge funds have held TDF for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
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Peak discovery — momentum slowing
7 → 7 → 5 → 3 → 6 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 7 → 5 → 3 → 6. TDF is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
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Deep conviction — 62% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 62% veterans
■ 16% 1-2yr
■ 22% new
Of 50 current holders: 31 (62%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
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Smaller funds dominant — 4% AUM from top-100
4% from top-100 AUM funds
10 of 50 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 4% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 3.4/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.