Based on 102 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their SMOT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (96% of max)
96% of all-time peak
102 hedge funds hold SMOT right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
〰️
Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year
fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding SMOT is almost the same as a year ago (+3 funds, +3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 35% buying
34 buying64 selling
Last quarter: 64 funds sold vs only 34 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~11 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 9 → 19 → 15 → 11. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
49% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 49% conviction (2yr+)
■ 34% medium
■ 17% new
50 out of 102 hedge funds have held SMOT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~11 new funds/quarter
13 → 9 → 19 → 15 → 11 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 9 → 19 → 15 → 11. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️
Veteran-anchored — 48% veterans vs 25% newcomers
■ 48% veterans
■ 27% 1-2yr
■ 25% new
Entry-cohort mix of 102 holders: 49 (48%) are 2+ year veterans, 28 entered 1–2 years ago, and 25 (25%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅
Strong quality — 32% AUM from major funds
32% from top-100 AUM funds
17 of 101 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 32% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
4.0
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.0/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.