Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)

54 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in SERA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -2
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
35%

Smart Money Signals — SERA

Based on 54 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their SERA positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 73% of 3.0Y peak

73% of all-time peak
54 funds currently hold this stock — 73% of the 3.0-year high of 74 funds (reached 2024 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 23% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
16 fewer hedge funds hold SERA compared to a year ago (-23% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴

Heavy selling pressure — only 35% buying

16 buying30 selling
Last quarter: 30 funds sold vs only 16 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~11 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 13 → 13 → 6 → 11. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

44% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 44% conviction (2yr+) ■ 31% medium ■ 24% new
24 out of 54 hedge funds have held SERA for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +14%, value -22%

Value
-22%
Shares
+13%
Last quarter: funds added +14% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -22%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

10 → 13 → 13 → 6 → 11 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 13 → 13 → 6 → 11. SERA is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 55% veterans vs 33% newcomers

■ 55% veterans ■ 13% 1-2yr ■ 33% new
Entry-cohort mix of 55 holders: 30 (55%) are 2+ year veterans, 7 entered 1–2 years ago, and 18 (33%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 6% AUM from top-100

6% from top-100 AUM funds
16 of 54 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 6% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
3.0
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.0/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — SERA

In 2026 Q1, 16 hedge funds were net buyers of SERA (11 opened a new position, 5 added to an existing one), while 30 reduced or exited (17 trimmed, 13 sold completely) — a 35% buyer ratio, indicating net institutional distribution. Net selling has persisted for two consecutive quarters. Net fund flow last quarter: -2 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 54.

Hedge Fund Ownership: SERA

How many hedge funds hold SERA — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of SERA vs. share price

Market Analysis: SERA

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: SERA

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much SERA has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLV) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 79d ago
SERA
-6.9%
XLV
+2.8%

SERA outperformed XLV by -9.7% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 34d ago
SERA
+9.9%
XLV
+3.9%

Since the filing became public, SERA outperformed XLV by +6.0% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

6 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
3.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: SERA
54 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in SERA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 54 56 -3.57%
13F Shares 20M 18M 13.65%
Total Value $40M $52M -22.26%
New Positions 11 6 +5
Increased Positions 5 14 -9
Closed Positions 13 11 +2
Reduced Positions 17 13 +4
Total Calls 1 0 100%
Total Puts 0 0 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: SERA

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

Market Cap --
Enterprise Value --
Trailing P/E --
Forward P/E --
PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

54 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in SERA. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 SERA holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 PSP Research LLC 3.44% 2,396,685 $4.9M
2 Whetstone Capital Advisors, LLC 2.33% 3,306,889 $6.7M
3 Vivo Capital, LLC 0.28% 1,650,440 $3.4M
4 Sanders Morris Harris LLC 0.10% 314,950 $639K
5 Baker BROS. Advisors LP 0.06% 5,498,170 $11.2M
6 AWM Investment Company, Inc. 0.05% 207,382 $421K
7 Requisite Capital Management, LLC 0.02% 55,648 $113K
8 Twelve Points Wealth Management LLC 0.02% 43,388 $88K
9 Riverview Capital Advisers, LLC 0.01% 12,669 $26K
10 Aberdeen Group plc 0.01% 2,550,775 $5.2M
11 Catalyst Funds Management Pty Ltd 0.01% 23,564 $48K
12 Wagner Wealth Management, LLC 0.01% 12,400 $25K
13 Segall Bryant & Hamill, LLC 0.00% 100,000 $193K
14 Perigon Wealth Management, LLC 0.00% 72,685 $148K
15 Birch Hill Investment Advisors LLC 0.00% 27,293 $55K
16 Captrust Financial Advisors 0.00% 536,761 $1.1M
17 Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC 0.00% 45,705 $93K
18 Ballentine Partners, LLC 0.00% 49,664 $101K
19 XTX Topco Ltd 0.00% 16,491 $33K
20 Geneos Wealth Management Inc. 0.00% 10,800 $22K
21 Arkadios Wealth Advisors 0.00% 12,400 $25K
22 HighTower Advisors, LLC 0.00% 42,234 $86K
23 Vanguard Fiduciary Trust Co 0.00% 169,661 $344K
24 Citadel Advisors LLC 0.00% 248,909 $505K
25 Millennium Management LLC 0.00% 91,504 $186K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for SERA?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their SERA positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for SERA?

Heavy selling pressure — only 35% buying: Last quarter: 30 funds sold vs only 16 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.

What is the fund quality score for SERA holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 6% AUM from top-100: 16 of 54 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 6% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held SERA?

44% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 24 out of 54 hedge funds have held SERA for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, SERA has moved +9.9% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +3.9% for the XLV sector ETF — an outperformance of +6.0%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), SERA has gained -6.9% vs +2.8% for XLV. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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