Based on 45 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their SDS positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻
Below peak — only 57% of 3.0Y high
57% of all-time peak
Only 45 funds hold SDS today versus a peak of 79 funds at 2023 Q1 — just 57% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
📉
Outflows — 25% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
15 fewer hedge funds hold SDS compared to a year ago (-25% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 30% buying
23 buying54 selling
Last quarter: 54 funds sold vs only 23 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~19 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 23 → 13 → 19 → 19. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
44% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 44% conviction (2yr+)
■ 22% medium
■ 33% new
20 out of 45 hedge funds have held SDS for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰
Price up while funds trimmed (+9% value, -77% shares)
Last quarter: total value of institutional SDS holdings rose +9% even though funds reduced share count by 77%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~19 new funds/quarter
20 → 23 → 13 → 19 → 19 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 23 → 13 → 19 → 19. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 61% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 61% veterans
■ 8% 1-2yr
■ 31% new
Of 49 current holders: 30 (61%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 7% AUM from top-100
7% from top-100 AUM funds
5 of 45 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 7% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 2.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.