Based on 84 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their RAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (99% of max)
99% of all-time peak
84 hedge funds hold RAIL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +24% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+16 new funds entered over the past year (+24% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 48% buying
51 buying55 selling
Last quarter: 55 funds reduced or exited vs 51 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
📈
More new buyers each quarter (+9 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new RAIL position: 18 → 16 → 15 → 24. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒
63% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 63% conviction (2yr+)
■ 15% medium
■ 21% new
53 out of 84 hedge funds have held RAIL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰
Value +41% but shares only +15% — price-driven
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +41%, but actual share count only changed +15%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
📈
Growing discovery — still being found
14 → 18 → 16 → 15 → 24 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 18 → 16 → 15 → 24. A growing number of institutions are discovering RAIL each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️
Veteran-anchored — 69% veterans vs 20% newcomers
■ 69% veterans
■ 11% 1-2yr
■ 20% new
Entry-cohort mix of 87 holders: 60 (69%) are 2+ year veterans, 10 entered 1–2 years ago, and 17 (20%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅
Strong quality — 28% AUM from major funds
28% from top-100 AUM funds
28 of 83 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 28% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 3.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.