Based on 74 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their RAIL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (96% of max)
96% of all-time peak
74 hedge funds hold RAIL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶
Steady growth — +17% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+11 new funds entered over the past year (+17% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟢
More buyers than sellers — 60% buying
50 buying33 selling
Last quarter: 50 funds were net buyers (15 opened a brand new position + 35 added to an existing one). Only 33 were sellers (15 trimmed + 18 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~15 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 22 → 14 → 18 → 15. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
57% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 57% conviction (2yr+)
■ 24% medium
■ 19% new
42 out of 74 hedge funds have held RAIL for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~15 new funds/quarter
22 → 22 → 14 → 18 → 15 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 22 → 14 → 18 → 15. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 68% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 68% veterans
■ 9% 1-2yr
■ 23% new
Of 77 current holders: 52 (68%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅
Strong quality — 23% AUM from major funds
23% from top-100 AUM funds
17 of 74 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 23% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.