Based on 135 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their PONY positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (95% of max)
95% of all-time peak
135 hedge funds hold PONY right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +193% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+89 new funds entered over the past year (+193% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡
Slight buying edge — 54% buying
94 buying79 selling
Last quarter: 94 funds bought or added vs 79 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-28 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 28 → 69 → 62 → 34. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔄
Mostly new holders — 67% entered in last year
■ 3% conviction (2yr+)
■ 30% medium
■ 67% new
Only 4 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares -43%, value -63%
Last quarter: funds added -43% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -63%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~34 new funds/quarter
45 → 28 → 69 → 62 → 34 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 28 → 69 → 62 → 34. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🌱
Early stage — 97% of holders entered in last year
■ 3% veterans
■ 0% 1-2yr
■ 97% new
Of 153 current holders: 148 (97%) entered in the past year, only 5 (3%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
✅
Strong quality — 27% AUM from major funds
27% from top-100 AUM funds
21 of 135 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 27% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
6.4
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 6.4/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.