Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Paychex Inc (PAYX)

1K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in PAYX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -73
Streak
4Q ▼
Buyers last Q
50%

Smart Money Signals — PAYX

Based on 1506 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their PAYX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 90% of 3.0Y peak

90% of all-time peak
1,506 funds currently hold this stock — 90% of the 3.0-year high of 1,676 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 10% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
170 fewer hedge funds hold PAYX compared to a year ago (-10% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 50% buying

774 buying779 selling
Last quarter: 774 funds bought or added vs 779 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-19 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 128 → 130 → 179 → 160. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

71% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 71% conviction (2yr+) ■ 15% medium ■ 14% new
1,070 out of 1,506 hedge funds have held PAYX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -1%, value -20%

Value
-19%
Shares
-1%
Last quarter: funds added -1% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -20%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

171 → 128 → 130 → 179 → 160 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 128 → 130 → 179 → 160. A growing number of institutions are discovering PAYX each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 73% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 73% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 17% new
Of 1,541 current holders: 1,127 (73%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds

50% from top-100 AUM funds
64 of 1506 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in PAYX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
2.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — PAYX

In 2026 Q1, 774 hedge funds were net buyers of PAYX (160 opened a new position, 614 added to an existing one), while 779 reduced or exited (546 trimmed, 233 sold completely) — a 50% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This extends a 4-quarter selling streak, suggesting sustained institutional caution. 50% of total institutional value in PAYX is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -73 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 1506.

Hedge Fund Ownership: PAYX

How many hedge funds hold PAYX — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of PAYX vs. share price

Market Analysis: PAYX

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: PAYX

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Paychex Inc (PAYX) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much PAYX has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLK) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 73d ago
PAYX
+9.2%
XLK
+37.9%

PAYX outperformed XLK by -28.7% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 28d ago
PAYX
+9.9%
XLK
+3.9%

Since the filing became public, PAYX outperformed XLK by +6.0% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

76 top-rated funds 3 high-conviction
Consensus
8.2
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.9
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: PAYX
1K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in PAYX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 1493 1579 -5.45%
13F Shares 286M 289M -1.17%
Total Value $25.95B $32.31B -19.68%
New Positions 154 179 -25
Increased Positions 602 529 +73
Closed Positions 240 195 +45
Reduced Positions 532 636 -104
Total Calls 24 27 -11.11%
Total Puts 19 25 -24.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.79 0.93 Neutral

Statistics: PAYX

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

1K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in PAYX. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 PAYX holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Windsor Advisory Group, LLC 16.33% 212,096 $19.5M
2 Prevatt Capital Ltd 6.08% 245,000 $22.6M
3 Mcdonald Capital Investors Inc/Ca 5.29% 839,205 $77.3M
4 Cooper/Haims Advisors, LLC 3.41% 78,596 $7.2M
5 Guinness Asset Management LTD 3.12% 1,968,734 $180.9M
6 William Allan Corp 2.68% 49,089 $4.5M
7 Parthenon LLC 2.59% 246,323 $22.7M
8 Hamlin Capital Management, LLC 2.53% 1,137,170 $104.8M
9 Two Point Capital Management, Inc. 2.41% 59,838 $5.5M
10 Miramar Capital, LLC 2.37% 115,404 $10.6M
11 Van Cleef Asset Management,Inc 2.26% 227,971 $21.0M
12 BTS Asset Management, Inc. 2.26% 6,365 $586K
13 Alley Investment Management Company, LLC 2.25% 200,847 $18.5M
14 Willis Investment Counsel 2.20% 437,030 $40.3M
15 Grandfield & Dodd, LLC 2.01% 386,178 $35.6M
16 Silver Lake Advisory, LLC 1.97% 53,855 $5.0M
17 Opus Investment Management Inc 1.95% 35,400 $3.3M
18 Measured Risk Portfolios, Inc. 1.93% 19,104 $1.8M
19 Greenfield Seitz Capital Management, LLC 1.88% 67,636 $6.2M
20 Bourne Lent Asset Management Inc 1.82% 53,607 $4.9M
21 Bontempo Ohly Capital Mgmt LLC 1.78% 42,893 $4.0M
22 Select Equity Group, L.P. 1.73% 3,670,073 $338.1M
23 Ridgepath Capital Management LLC 1.72% 37,460 $3.5M
24 Letson Investment Management, INC. 1.70% 47,985 $4.4M
25 Welch Group, LLC 1.68% 484,448 $44.6M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Paychex Inc (PAYX)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for PAYX?

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their PAYX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for PAYX?

Slight buying edge — 50% buying: Last quarter: 774 funds bought or added vs 779 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for PAYX holders?

Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds: 64 of 1506 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in PAYX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held PAYX?

71% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1,070 out of 1,506 hedge funds have held PAYX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Paychex Inc (PAYX) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, PAYX has moved +9.9% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +3.9% for the XLK sector ETF — an outperformance of +6.0%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), PAYX has gained +9.2% vs +37.9% for XLK. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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