Based on 69 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their OPAL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (97% of max)
97% of all-time peak
69 hedge funds hold OPAL right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +38% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+19 new funds entered over the past year (+38% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 48% buying
31 buying34 selling
Last quarter: 34 funds reduced or exited vs 31 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-6 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 28 → 17 → 11. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
📌
Mixed — 33% long-term, 41% new
■ 33% conviction (2yr+)
■ 26% medium
■ 41% new
Of the 69 current holders: 23 (33%) held >2 years, 18 held 1–2 years, and 28 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares +16%, value -46%
Last quarter: funds added +16% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -46%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~11 new funds/quarter
7 → 4 → 28 → 17 → 11 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 28 → 17 → 11. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
📊
Mixed cohorts — 38% veterans, 49% new entrants
■ 38% veterans
■ 13% 1-2yr
■ 49% new
Of 69 current holders: 26 (38%) held 2+ years, 9 held 1–2 years, 34 (49%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
🏆
Elite ownership — 50% AUM from top-100 funds
50% from top-100 AUM funds
23 of 69 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 50% of total institutional value in OPAL. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
4.7
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.7/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.