Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Novavax Inc (NVAX)

255 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NVAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +17
Streak
1Q ▲
Buyers last Q
53%

Smart Money Signals — NVAX

Based on 257 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added NVAX than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (99% of max)

99% of all-time peak
257 hedge funds hold NVAX right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +5% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+12 new funds entered over the past year (+5% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 53% buying

135 buying118 selling
Last quarter: 135 funds bought or added vs 118 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+18 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new NVAX position: 56 → 44 → 37 → 55. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

61% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 61% conviction (2yr+) ■ 23% medium ■ 16% new
156 out of 257 hedge funds have held NVAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+17% value, -3% shares)

Value
+17%
Shares
-2%
Last quarter: total value of institutional NVAX holdings rose +17% even though funds reduced share count by 3%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~55 new funds/quarter

50 → 56 → 44 → 37 → 55 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 56 → 44 → 37 → 55. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 72% veterans vs 16% newcomers

■ 72% veterans ■ 12% 1-2yr ■ 16% new
Entry-cohort mix of 282 holders: 203 (72%) are 2+ year veterans, 33 entered 1–2 years ago, and 46 (16%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 41% AUM from top-100 funds

41% from top-100 AUM funds
49 of 255 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 41% of total institutional value in NVAX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.4
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.4/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NVAX

In 2026 Q1, 135 hedge funds were net buyers of NVAX (55 opened a new position, 80 added to an existing one), while 118 reduced or exited (80 trimmed, 38 sold completely) — a 53% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. 41% of total institutional value in NVAX is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +17 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 257.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NVAX

How many hedge funds hold NVAX — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NVAX vs. share price

Market Analysis: NVAX

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NVAX

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Novavax Inc (NVAX) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NVAX has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLV) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
NVAX
+19.2%
XLV
+3.0%

NVAX outperformed XLV by +16.2% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
NVAX
+7.1%
XLV
+4.1%

Since the filing became public, NVAX outperformed XLV by +3.0% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

27 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
6.3
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.7
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NVAX
255 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NVAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 255 240 6.25%
13F Shares 127M 131M -2.86%
Total Value $1.03B $878M 17.1%
New Positions 54 37 +17
Increased Positions 72 68 +4
Closed Positions 39 47 -8
Reduced Positions 75 85 -10
Total Calls 13 13 -
Total Puts 14 22 -36.36%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.08 1.69 Neutral

Statistics: NVAX

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

255 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NVAX. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 NVAX holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Shah Capital Management 23.18% 14,845,097 $120.8M
2 Sanofi 16.67% 6,880,481 $56.0M
3 TSP Capital Management Group, LLC 2.76% 1,390,565 $11.3M
4 Monaco Asset Management SAM 1.05% 697,600 $5.7M
5 Ares Systematic Credit Ltd 0.57% 89,537 $724K
6 Graham Capital Management, L.P. 0.41% 2,086,600 $17.0M
7 Virtus Investment Advisers, LLC 0.29% 128,505 $1.0M
8 Palumbo Wealth Management LLC 0.18% 92,111 $750K
9 Headlands Technologies LLC 0.18% 189,675 $1.5M
10 Bridgefront Capital, LLC 0.18% 86,918 $708K
11 Edgestream Partners, L.P. 0.14% 520,135 $4.2M
12 Scientech Research LLC 0.12% 17,353 $141K
13 Coatue Management LLC 0.11% 3,836,986 $31.2M
14 VARCOV Co. 0.10% 31,957 $260K
15 Nebula Research & Development LLC 0.08% 146,528 $923K
16 Hussman Strategic Advisors, INC. 0.07% 42,000 $342K
17 Bayforest Capital Ltd 0.07% 7,864 $64K
18 Oxford Asset Management LLP 0.07% 19,783 $161K
19 Axq Capital, LP 0.06% 55,989 $456K
20 Summit Securities Group LLC 0.04% 40,000 $326K
21 D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc. 0.04% 7,709,858 $62.8M
22 Jefferies Financial Group Inc. 0.04% 673,120 $5.5M
23 PayPay Securities Corp 0.03% 116 $1K
24 Beirne Wealth Consulting Services, LLC 0.03% 15,000 $122K
25 Profund Advisors LLC 0.03% 110,955 $903K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Novavax Inc (NVAX)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NVAX?

Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added NVAX than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for NVAX?

Slight buying edge — 53% buying: Last quarter: 135 funds bought or added vs 118 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for NVAX holders?

Elite ownership — 41% AUM from top-100 funds: 49 of 255 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 41% of total institutional value in NVAX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held NVAX?

61% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 156 out of 257 hedge funds have held NVAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Novavax Inc (NVAX) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, NVAX has moved +7.1% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +4.1% for the XLV sector ETF — an outperformance of +3.0%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), NVAX has gained +19.2% vs +3.0% for XLV. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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