Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

NOVAVAX INC (NVAX)

255 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NVAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -7
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
46%

Smart Money Signals — NVAX

Based on 228 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NVAX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 93% of 3.0Y peak

93% of all-time peak
228 funds currently hold this stock — 93% of the 3.0-year high of 244 funds (reached 2025 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding NVAX is almost the same as a year ago (+6 funds, +3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 46% buying

109 buying129 selling
Last quarter: 129 funds reduced or exited vs 109 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~35 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 48 → 51 → 40 → 35. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

66% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 66% conviction (2yr+) ■ 19% medium ■ 15% new
151 out of 228 hedge funds have held NVAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +11%, value -14%

Value
-13%
Shares
+11%
Last quarter: funds added +11% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -14%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

37 → 48 → 51 → 40 → 35 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 48 → 51 → 40 → 35. NVAX is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 74% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 74% veterans ■ 9% 1-2yr ■ 17% new
Of 255 current holders: 188 (74%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 42% AUM from top-100 funds

42% from top-100 AUM funds
34 of 228 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 42% of total institutional value in NVAX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NVAX

How many hedge funds hold NVAX — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NVAX vs. share price

Market Analysis: NVAX

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NVAX

-- --
Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

42 top-rated funds 3 high-conviction
Consensus
7.1
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NVAX
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 22 days 255 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NVAX. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 255 263 -3.04%
13F Shares 130M 117M 11.09%
Total Value $875M $1.02B -13.8%
New Positions 35 41 -6
Increased Positions 107 118 -11
Closed Positions 46 50 -4
Reduced Positions 126 118 +8
Total Calls 13 17 -23.53%
Total Puts 22 22 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.69 1.29 Bearish

Statistics: NVAX

View More

Valuation Measures Data as of: --

Market Cap --
Enterprise Value --
Trailing P/E --
Forward P/E --
PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

255 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NVAX. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

Top 25 institutional holders of NVAX — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 SHAH CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 23.18% 14,845,097 $120.8M
2 TSP Capital Management Group, LLC 2.76% 1,390,565 $11.3M
3 Bayforest Capital Ltd 0.07% 7,864 $64K
4 PayPay Securities Corp 0.03% 116 $1K
5 PROFUND ADVISORS LLC 0.03% 110,955 $903K
6 TigerOak Management, L.L.C. 0.03% 10,640 $87K
7 LAUREL OAK WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.02% 15,540 $126K
8 Marex Group plc 0.01% 33,729 $427K
9 OPPENHEIMER & CO INC 0.01% 105,168 $856K
10 E Fund Management Co., Ltd. 0.01% 31,226 $254K
11 Leonteq Securities AG 0.01% 21,815 $178K
12 Assenagon Asset Management S.A. 0.00% 364,770 $3.0M
13 Bulwark Capital Corp 0.00% 610 $5K
14 STRS OHIO 0.00% 74,600 $607K
15 Hilton Head Capital Partners, LLC 0.00% 300 $2K
16 SG Americas Securities, LLC 0.00% 141,085 $1K
17 Private Advisor Group, LLC 0.00% 32,243 $262K
18 Versant Capital Management, Inc 0.00% 1,255 $10K
19 SIGNATUREFD, LLC 0.00% 7,265 $59K
20 COMMONWEALTH EQUITY SERVICES, LLC 0.00% 55,750 $454K
21 ProShare Advisors LLC 0.00% 46,131 $376K
22 GF FUND MANAGEMENT CO. LTD. 0.00% 3,633 $30K
23 HARBOR INVESTMENT ADVISORY, LLC 0.00% 756 $6K
24 NBC SECURITIES, INC. 0.00% 711 $6K
25 GAMMA Investing LLC 0.00% 1,112 $9K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — NOVAVAX INC (NVAX)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NVAX?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NVAX positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for NVAX?

More sellers than buyers — 46% buying: Last quarter: 129 funds reduced or exited vs 109 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for NVAX holders?

Elite ownership — 42% AUM from top-100 funds: 34 of 228 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 42% of total institutional value in NVAX. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held NVAX?

66% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 151 out of 228 hedge funds have held NVAX for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.