Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA)

35 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NVA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +6
Streak
4Q ▲
Buyers last Q
56%

Smart Money Signals — NVA

Based on 35 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added NVA than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
35 hedge funds hold NVA right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +483% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+29 new funds entered over the past year (+483% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 56% buying

22 buying17 selling
Last quarter: 22 funds bought or added vs 17 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-7 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 5 → 21 → 14. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔄

Mostly new holders — 74% entered in last year

3% conviction (2yr+) 23% medium 74% new
Only 1 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +14%, value -93%

Value
-92%
Shares
+13%
Last quarter: funds added +14% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -93%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

1 → 4 → 5 → 21 → 14 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 5 → 21 → 14. A growing number of institutions are discovering NVA each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🌱

Early stage — 79% of holders entered in last year

5% veterans 15% 1-2yr 79% new
Of 39 current holders: 31 (79%) entered in the past year, only 2 (5%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
🏆

Elite ownership — 62% AUM from top-100 funds

62% from top-100 AUM funds
14 of 32 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 62% of total institutional value in NVA. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
6.9
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 6.9/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NVA

In 2026 Q1, 22 hedge funds were net buyers of NVA (14 opened a new position, 8 added to an existing one), while 17 reduced or exited (9 trimmed, 8 sold completely) — a 56% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 4 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 62% of total institutional value in NVA is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +6 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 35.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NVA

How many hedge funds hold NVA — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NVA vs. share price

Market Analysis: NVA

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NVA

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NVA has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 87d ago
NVA
-21.3%
SPY
+13.0%

NVA outperformed SPY by -34.3% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 42d ago
NVA
-21.3%
SPY
-0.5%

Since the filing became public, NVA outperformed SPY by -20.8% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

3 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
2.6
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NVA
35 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NVA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 35 29 20.69%
13F Shares 2M 2M 13.77%
Total Value $14M $196M -92.9%
New Positions 14 21 -7
Increased Positions 8 7 +1
Closed Positions 8 3 +5
Reduced Positions 8 1 +7
Total Calls 4 0 100%
Total Puts 3 1 200.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.75 0.0 Neutral

Statistics: NVA

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Profit Margin --
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Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

35 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NVA. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 NVA holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Spruce Point Capital Management, LLC 0.49% 76,100 $447K
2 Brooklands Fund Management Ltd 0.40% 60,000 $352K
3 Trifecta Capital Advisors, LLC 0.05% 59,240 $348K
4 Marshall Wace, LLP 0.00% 549,801 $3.2M
5 Engineers Gate Manager LP 0.00% 30,541 $179K
6 Peak6 LLC 0.00% 80,000 $470K
7 Armstrong Advisory Group, Inc 0.00% 1,925 $11K
8 Rothschild Investment LLC 0.00% 1,500 $9K
9 Millennium Management LLC 0.00% 156,965 $921K
10 Bogart Wealth, LLC 0.00% 1,500 $9K
11 Lido Advisors, LLC 0.00% 17,000 $100K
12 Hrt Financial LP 0.00% 14,615 $85K
13 City Holding Co 0.00% 260 $2K
14 Morgan Stanley 0.00% 502,683 $3.0M
15 N.E.W. Advisory Services LLC 0.00% 378 $2K
16 Jane Street Group, LLC 0.00% 185,682 $1.1M
17 UBS Group AG 0.00% 141,803 $832K
18 Susquehanna International Group, LLP 0.00% 170,368 $1.0M
19 Citadel Advisors LLC 0.00% 104,300 $612K
20 Rhumbline Advisers 0.00% 18,657 $110K
21 Bank of Montreal /Can/ 0.00% 22,595 $133K
22 Susquehanna International Group, LLP 0.00% 57,900 $340K
23 Jane Street Group, LLC 0.00% 40,700 $239K
24 US Bancorp \de\ 0.00% 3,300 $19K
25 LPL Financial LLC 0.00% 13,134 $77K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NVA?

Buying streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added NVA than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for NVA?

Slight buying edge — 56% buying: Last quarter: 22 funds bought or added vs 17 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for NVA holders?

Elite ownership — 62% AUM from top-100 funds: 14 of 32 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 62% of total institutional value in NVA. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held NVA?

Mostly new holders — 74% entered in last year: Only 1 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.

Is it too late to buy Nova Minerals Ltd (NVA) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, NVA has moved -21.3% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to -0.5% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of -20.8%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), NVA has gained -21.3% vs +13.0% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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