Based on 7 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q3 · updated quarterly
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Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NOVA positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
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Below peak — only 3% of 3.0Y high
3% of all-time peak
Only 7 funds hold NOVA today versus a peak of 233 funds at 2023 Q4 — just 3% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
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Outflows — 97% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
217 fewer hedge funds hold NOVA compared to a year ago (-97% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
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Heavy selling pressure — only 5% buying
1 buying20 selling
Last quarter: 20 funds sold vs only 1 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
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Steady new buyers — ~1 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 47 → 35 → 5 → 1. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
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Price up while funds trimmed (-24% value, -41% shares)
Last quarter: total value of institutional NOVA holdings rose -24% even though funds reduced share count by 41%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
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Saturation — most institutions already know this story
39 → 47 → 35 → 5 → 1 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 47 → 35 → 5 → 1. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
Exit risk score 2.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.