Based on 52 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NCZ positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
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At the ownership peak (95% of max)
95% of all-time peak
52 hedge funds hold NCZ right now — the highest count in 1.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
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More sellers than buyers — 48% buying
23 buying25 selling
Last quarter: 25 funds reduced or exited vs 23 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
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Steady new buyers — ~6 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 14 → 5 → 6. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
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Mostly new holders — 31% entered in last year
■ 0% conviction (2yr+)
■ 69% medium
■ 31% new
Only 0 funds (0%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
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Saturation — most institutions already know this story
14 → 5 → 6 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 14 → 5 → 6. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
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Early stage — 100% of holders entered in last year
■ 0% veterans
■ 0% 1-2yr
■ 100% new
Of 52 current holders: 52 (100%) entered in the past year, only 0 (0%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
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Elite ownership — 48% AUM from top-100 funds
48% from top-100 AUM funds
8 of 52 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 48% of total institutional value in NCZ. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
Exit risk score 3.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.