Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI)

98 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NCMI. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -1
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
54%

Smart Money Signals — NCMI

Based on 99 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NCMI positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 85% of 3.0Y peak

85% of all-time peak
99 funds currently hold this stock — 85% of the 3.0-year high of 116 funds (reached 2024 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 12% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
14 fewer hedge funds hold NCMI compared to a year ago (-12% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 54% buying

57 buying49 selling
Last quarter: 57 funds bought or added vs 49 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+9 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new NCMI position: 13 → 24 → 11 → 20. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

64% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 64% conviction (2yr+) ■ 20% medium ■ 16% new
63 out of 99 hedge funds have held NCMI for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -2%, value -100%

Value
-99%
Shares
-2%
Last quarter: funds added -2% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -100%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

14 → 13 → 24 → 11 → 20 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 13 → 24 → 11 → 20. NCMI is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 73% veterans vs 17% newcomers

■ 73% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 17% new
Entry-cohort mix of 101 holders: 74 (73%) are 2+ year veterans, 10 entered 1–2 years ago, and 17 (17%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 18% AUM from top-100

18% from top-100 AUM funds
32 of 99 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 18% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
2.7
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NCMI

In 2026 Q1, 57 hedge funds were net buyers of NCMI (20 opened a new position, 37 added to an existing one), while 49 reduced or exited (28 trimmed, 21 sold completely) — a 54% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. Net selling has persisted for two consecutive quarters. Net fund flow last quarter: -1 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 99.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NCMI

How many hedge funds hold NCMI — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NCMI vs. share price

Market Analysis: NCMI

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NCMI

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NCMI has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLC) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
NCMI
+19.3%
XLC
+0.7%

NCMI outperformed XLC by +18.6% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
NCMI
+31.3%
XLC
-3.8%

Since the filing became public, NCMI outperformed XLC by +35.1% .

Interpretation: The stock has significantly outperformed its sector benchmark — the original entry opportunity has largely been captured by earlier investors. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

11 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
4.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.2
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NCMI
98 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NCMI. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 98 100 -2.0%
13F Shares 80M 82M -2.25%
Total Value $243M $105.81B -99.77%
New Positions 19 11 +8
Increased Positions 37 36 +1
Closed Positions 21 20 +1
Reduced Positions 28 36 -8
Total Calls 1 1 -
Total Puts 1 0 100%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 0.0 Neutral

Statistics: NCMI

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Profit Margin --
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Income Statement & Cash Flow
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Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

98 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NCMI. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 NCMI holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Blantyre Capital Ltd 100.00% 27,144,639 $82.8M
2 Sycale Advisors (NY) LLC 2.21% 1,451,498 $4.4M
3 EVR Research LP 1.38% 1,130,000 $3.4M
4 Glendon Capital Management LP 0.64% 1,678,903 $5.1M
5 Contrarian Capital Management, L.L.C. 0.51% 596,231 $1.8M
6 Gratia Capital, LLC 0.43% 318,000 $970K
7 Luxor Capital Group, LP 0.39% 1,820,737 $5.6M
8 Orbis Allan Gray Ltd 0.12% 9,138,042 $27.9M
9 Byrne Asset Management LLC 0.11% 63,950 $195K
10 Pacific Ridge Capital Partners, LLC 0.10% 157,395 $480K
11 Zazove Associates LLC 0.09% 257,375 $1.0M
12 Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management LLC 0.07% 7,897,853 $24.1M
13 EntryPoint Capital, LLC 0.05% 60,943 $186K
14 Whitebox Advisors LLC 0.05% 1,242,084 $3.8M
15 Hill Investment Group Partners, LLC 0.02% 58,575 $179K
16 Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC 0.01% 211,100 $644K
17 Two Sigma Securities, LLC 0.01% 21,668 $66K
18 Dynamic Technology Lab Private Ltd 0.01% 11,133 $34K
19 First Eagle Investment Management, LLC 0.00% 435,618 $1.3M
20 Voya Investment Management LLC 0.00% 544,906 $1.7M
21 Barclays plc 0.00% 2,163,160 $6.6M
22 Wellington Management Group LLP 0.00% 2,775,181 $8.5M
23 Marshall Wace, LLP 0.00% 476,585 $1.5M
24 Pinnacle Associates Ltd 0.00% 32,589 $99K
25 Essential Partners LLC 0.00% 1,189 $4K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NCMI?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NCMI positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for NCMI?

Slight buying edge — 54% buying: Last quarter: 57 funds bought or added vs 49 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for NCMI holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 18% AUM from top-100: 32 of 99 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 18% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held NCMI?

64% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 63 out of 99 hedge funds have held NCMI for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, NCMI has moved +31.3% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to -3.8% for the XLC sector ETF — an outperformance of +35.1%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), NCMI has gained +19.3% vs +0.7% for XLC. The stock has significantly outperformed its sector benchmark — the original entry opportunity has largely been captured by earlier investors.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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