Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lend (NCDL)

68 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in NCDL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -12
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
47%

Smart Money Signals — NCDL

Based on 68 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NCDL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 85% of 3.0Y peak

85% of all-time peak
68 funds currently hold this stock — 85% of the 3.0-year high of 80 funds (reached 2024 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 13% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
10 fewer hedge funds hold NCDL compared to a year ago (-13% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying

35 buying40 selling
Last quarter: 40 funds reduced or exited vs 35 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-9 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 12 → 19 → 18 → 9. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔄

Mostly new holders — 32% entered in last year

■ 16% conviction (2yr+) ■ 51% medium ■ 32% new
Only 11 funds (16%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~9 new funds/quarter

16 → 12 → 19 → 18 → 9 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 12 → 19 → 18 → 9. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
📊

Mixed cohorts — 3% veterans, 43% new entrants

■ 3% veterans ■ 54% 1-2yr ■ 43% new
Of 68 current holders: 2 (3%) held 2+ years, 37 held 1–2 years, 29 (43%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
✅

Strong quality — 20% AUM from major funds

20% from top-100 AUM funds
15 of 68 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 20% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
3.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — NCDL

In 2026 Q1, 35 hedge funds were net buyers of NCDL (9 opened a new position, 26 added to an existing one), while 40 reduced or exited (19 trimmed, 21 sold completely) — a 47% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 20% of total institutional value in NCDL is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -12 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 68.

Hedge Fund Ownership: NCDL

How many hedge funds hold NCDL — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of NCDL vs. share price

Market Analysis: NCDL

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: NCDL

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Nuveen Churchill Direct Lend (NCDL) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much NCDL has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLF) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 85d ago
NCDL
-3.9%
XLF
+8.8%

NCDL outperformed XLF by -12.7% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 40d ago
NCDL
-7.7%
XLF
+5.1%

Since the filing became public, NCDL outperformed XLF by -12.8% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

4 top-rated funds 2 high-conviction
Consensus
3.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.9
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: NCDL
68 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in NCDL. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 68 80 -15.0%
13F Shares 16M 16M 0.78%
Total Value $191M $207M -7.94%
New Positions 9 18 -9
Increased Positions 26 22 +4
Closed Positions 21 13 +8
Reduced Positions 19 27 -8
Total Calls 0 0 -
Total Puts 0 0 -
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.0 0.0 Bullish

Statistics: NCDL

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

68 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in NCDL. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 NCDL holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Blue Owl Capital Holdings LP 7.33% 2,143,626 $27.3M
2 Opal Wealth Advisors, LLC 1.80% 625,215 $8.0M
3 Diameter Capital Partners LP 1.64% 1,379,361 $17.5M
4 GraniteShares Advisors LLC 1.61% 175,377 $2.2M
5 Closed-End Fund Advisors, Inc. 1.20% 92,957 $1.2M
6 Bulldog Investors, LLP 0.64% 224,822 $2.9M
7 Ares Management LLC 0.48% 574,838 $7.3M
8 Callodine Capital Management, LP 0.40% 450,000 $5.7M
9 Almitas Capital LLC 0.20% 70,160 $892K
10 Hennion & Walsh Asset Management, Inc. 0.18% 430,034 $5.5M
11 QTR Family Wealth, LLC 0.15% 25,324 $355K
12 Hudson Value Partners, LLC 0.14% 37,720 $480K
13 Beacon Bridge Wealth Partners, LLC 0.14% 32,432 $413K
14 NewGen Asset Management Ltd 0.14% 27,900 $355K
15 Adams Asset Advisors, LLC 0.13% 91,021 $1.2M
16 Prota Financial, LLC 0.12% 12,240 $163K
17 Virtus Investment Advisers, LLC 0.10% 28,562 $363K
18 Dudley Capital Management, LLC 0.10% 17,750 $226K
19 Accurate Wealth Management, LLC 0.08% 51,074 $688K
20 Aprio Wealth Management, LLC 0.08% 116,409 $1.5M
21 Brown Brothers Harriman & Co 0.06% 921,978 $11.7M
22 Nottingham Advisors, INC. 0.04% 24,195 $308K
23 Corient Private Wealth LLC 0.03% 1,732,619 $22.0M
24 Vise Technologies, Inc. 0.02% 95,252 $1.3M
25 Procyon Advisors, LLC 0.02% 39,584 $504K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Nuveen Churchill Direct Lend (NCDL)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for NCDL?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their NCDL positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for NCDL?

More sellers than buyers — 47% buying: Last quarter: 40 funds reduced or exited vs 35 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for NCDL holders?

Strong quality — 20% AUM from major funds: 15 of 68 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 20% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held NCDL?

Mostly new holders — 32% entered in last year: Only 11 funds (16%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.

Is it too late to buy Nuveen Churchill Direct Lend (NCDL) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, NCDL has moved -7.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +5.1% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of -12.8%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), NCDL has gained -3.9% vs +8.8% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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