Based on 37 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their MCRB positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (97% of max)
97% of all-time peak
37 hedge funds hold MCRB right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +3600% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+36 new funds entered over the past year (+3600% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡
Slight buying edge — 57% buying
23 buying17 selling
Last quarter: 23 funds bought or added vs 17 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-6 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 32 → 14 → 8. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔄
Mostly new holders — 89% entered in last year
■ 3% conviction (2yr+)
■ 8% medium
■ 89% new
Only 1 funds (3%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares -7%, value -28%
Last quarter: funds added -7% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -28%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊
Peak discovery — momentum slowing
0 → 4 → 32 → 14 → 8 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 32 → 14 → 8. MCRB is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🌱
Early stage — 98% of holders entered in last year
■ 2% veterans
■ 0% 1-2yr
■ 98% new
Of 40 current holders: 39 (98%) entered in the past year, only 1 (2%) are 2+ year veterans. This is an early-phase institutional idea — still being discovered. High upside potential if the thesis plays out, but thin conviction base.
✅
Strong quality — 21% AUM from major funds
21% from top-100 AUM funds
14 of 37 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 21% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 7.1/10 — multiple crowding signals converge. Institutional ownership is at 97% of its all-time high — near peak crowding. Crowded trades can unwind fast — a single catalyst can trigger a cascade.