Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Mattel Inc (MAT)

421 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in MAT. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -12
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
48%

Smart Money Signals — MAT

Based on 422 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their MAT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (96% of max)

96% of all-time peak
422 hedge funds hold MAT right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📉

Outflows — 4% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
18 fewer hedge funds hold MAT compared to a year ago (-4% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 48% buying

212 buying226 selling
Last quarter: 226 funds reduced or exited vs 212 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-10 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 73 → 63 → 81 → 71. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 65% conviction (2yr+) ■ 18% medium ■ 17% new
273 out of 422 hedge funds have held MAT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -4%, value -32%

Value
-31%
Shares
-4%
Last quarter: funds added -4% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -32%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

87 → 73 → 63 → 81 → 71 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 73 → 63 → 81 → 71. A growing number of institutions are discovering MAT each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 71% veterans vs 20% newcomers

■ 71% veterans ■ 9% 1-2yr ■ 20% new
Entry-cohort mix of 433 holders: 309 (71%) are 2+ year veterans, 38 entered 1–2 years ago, and 86 (20%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 36% AUM from major funds

36% from top-100 AUM funds
51 of 420 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 36% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
3.3
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.3/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — MAT

In 2026 Q1, 212 hedge funds were net buyers of MAT (71 opened a new position, 141 added to an existing one), while 226 reduced or exited (143 trimmed, 83 sold completely) — a 48% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 36% of total institutional value in MAT is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -12 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 422.

Hedge Fund Ownership: MAT

How many hedge funds hold MAT — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of MAT vs. share price

Market Analysis: MAT

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: MAT

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Mattel Inc (MAT) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much MAT has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 85d ago
MAT
-5.2%
XLY
+4.4%

MAT outperformed XLY by -9.6% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 40d ago
MAT
-9.1%
XLY
-2.4%

Since the filing became public, MAT outperformed XLY by -6.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

34 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
6.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.7
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: MAT
421 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in MAT. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 421 434 -3.0%
13F Shares 301M 313M -4.04%
Total Value $4.16B $6.10B -31.75%
New Positions 71 81 -10
Increased Positions 138 123 +15
Closed Positions 84 72 +12
Reduced Positions 138 155 -17
Total Calls 8 8 -
Total Puts 5 7 -28.57%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.62 0.88 Bullish

Statistics: MAT

View More

Valuation Measures Data as of: --

Market Cap --
Enterprise Value --
Trailing P/E --
Forward P/E --
PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

421 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in MAT. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 MAT holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Southeastern Asset Management Inc/Tn/ 9.16% 12,812,157 $186.2M
2 Serenity Capital Management PTE. LTD. 7.02% 2,002,032 $29.1M
3 EdgePoint Investment Group Inc. 5.72% 49,140,882 $714.0M
4 Seven Six Capital Management, LLC 2.27% 145,200 $2.1M
5 Ariel Investments, LLC 2.21% 13,567,083 $197.1M
6 Kennondale Capital Management LLC 1.08% 103,235 $1.5M
7 Long Focus Capital Management, LLC 0.73% 1,919,166 $27.9M
8 Galvin, Gaustad & Stein, LLC 0.65% 558,382 $8.1M
9 III Capital Management 0.61% 144,519 $2.1M
10 Teza Capital Management LLC 0.59% 11,123 $162K
11 Interval Partners, LP 0.45% 1,193,062 $17.3M
12 Havemeyer Place LP 0.40% 237,548 $3.5M
13 44 Wealth Management LLC 0.38% 74,484 $1.1M
14 Primecap Management Co/Ca/ 0.34% 29,697,924 $431.5M
15 Foyston, Gordon & Payne Inc 0.30% 88,157 $1.3M
16 Fox Run Management, L.L.C. 0.28% 111,858 $1.6M
17 Oxford Asset Management LLP 0.27% 43,006 $625K
18 WINTON GROUP Ltd 0.26% 509,872 $7.4M
19 Taproot Management LP 0.26% 93,672 $1.4M
20 Frontier Capital Management Co LLC 0.25% 1,691,423 $24.6M
21 VARCOV Co. 0.22% 40,256 $585K
22 Edmond de Rothschild Holding S.A. 0.20% 960,000 $13.9M
23 Hbk Investments L P 0.19% 1,300,000 $18.9M
24 Alyeska Investment Group, L.P. 0.19% 4,608,679 $67.0M
25 CastleKnight Management LP 0.17% 715,376 $10.4M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Mattel Inc (MAT)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for MAT?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their MAT positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for MAT?

More sellers than buyers — 48% buying: Last quarter: 226 funds reduced or exited vs 212 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for MAT holders?

Strong quality — 36% AUM from major funds: 51 of 420 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 36% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held MAT?

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 273 out of 422 hedge funds have held MAT for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Mattel Inc (MAT) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, MAT has moved -9.1% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to -2.4% for the XLY sector ETF — an outperformance of -6.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), MAT has gained -5.2% vs +4.4% for XLY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Full history →