Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Illinois Tool Wks Inc (ITW)

2K + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in ITW. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +40
Streak
3Q ▲
Buyers last Q
49%

Smart Money Signals — ITW

Based on 1977 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added ITW than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
1,977 hedge funds hold ITW right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +8% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+148 new funds entered over the past year (+8% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying

862 buying888 selling
Last quarter: 888 funds reduced or exited vs 862 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-25 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 133 → 220 → 195 → 170. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

72% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 72% conviction (2yr+) ■ 15% medium ■ 13% new
1,421 out of 1,977 hedge funds have held ITW for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +45%, value +4%

Value
+4%
Shares
+45%
Last quarter: funds added +45% more shares while total portfolio value only changed +4%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~170 new funds/quarter

151 → 133 → 220 → 195 → 170 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 133 → 220 → 195 → 170. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 74% veterans vs 16% newcomers

■ 74% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 16% new
Entry-cohort mix of 2,001 holders: 1,486 (74%) are 2+ year veterans, 200 entered 1–2 years ago, and 315 (16%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 62% AUM from top-100 funds

62% from top-100 AUM funds
69 of 1971 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 62% of total institutional value in ITW. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.5
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — ITW

In 2026 Q2, 862 hedge funds were net buyers of ITW (170 opened a new position, 692 added to an existing one), while 888 reduced or exited (758 trimmed, 130 sold completely) — a 49% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. This marks 3 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 62% of total institutional value in ITW is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +40 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 1977.

Hedge Fund Ownership: ITW

How many hedge funds hold ITW — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of ITW vs. share price

Market Analysis: ITW

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: ITW

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Illinois Tool Wks Inc (ITW) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much ITW has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLI) since the 2026 Q2 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End June 30, 2026 · 92d ago
ITW
-1.4%
XLI
-8.4%

ITW outperformed XLI by +7.0% since June 30, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date August 14, 2026 · 47d ago
ITW
-8.3%
XLI
-9.1%

Since the filing became public, ITW outperformed XLI by +0.8% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

56 top-rated funds 7 high-conviction
Consensus
7.6
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.4
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: ITW
2K + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in ITW. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 1952 1937 0.77%
13F Shares 244M 244M 0.04%
Total Value $64.83B $62.62B 3.54%
New Positions 164 195 -31
Increased Positions 677 645 +32
Closed Positions 143 135 +8
Reduced Positions 746 712 +34
Total Calls 17 14 21.43%
Total Puts 12 16 -25.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.71 1.14 Neutral

Statistics: ITW

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
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Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

2K + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in ITW. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 ITW holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Briar Hall Management LLC 100.00% 25,811,219 $6.98B
2 Kmt Wealth Management, LLC 12.13% 53,011 $14.3M
3 Kingsbury Capital Investment Advisors LLC 12.13% 53,011 $14.3M
4 Coerente Capital Management 5.25% 105,455 $28.5M
5 Mcdaniel Terry & Co 3.91% 185,044 $50.0M
6 State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co 3.89% 21,029,900 $5.69B
7 Long Road Investment Counsel, LLC 3.85% 38,576 $10.4M
8 Windle Wealth, LLC 3.68% 33,852 $9.2M
9 Borer Denton & Associates, Inc. 3.63% 40,880 $11.1M
10 Guinness Asset Management LTD 3.29% 721,056 $194.2M
11 Eliot Finkel Investment Counsel, LLC 3.27% 25,900 $7.0M
12 Compass Capital Management, Inc 3.27% 200,530 $54.2M
13 M. Kraus & Co 2.72% 37,955 $10.3M
14 Regents Gate Capital LLP 2.65% 7,359 $2.0M
15 Chronos Wealth Management, LLC 2.53% 21,069 $5.7M
16 DLK Investment Management, LLC 2.33% 23,131 $5.5M
17 Grandfield & Dodd, LLC 2.28% 161,171 $43.6M
18 Fenimore Asset Management Inc 2.20% 392,941 $106.3M
19 Ramsay, Stattman, Vela & Price, Inc. 2.17% 45,163 $12.2M
20 Hamel Associates, INC. 2.17% 29,101 $7.9M
21 Bontempo Ohly Capital Mgmt LLC 2.15% 18,632 $5.0M
22 Shelter Mutual Insurance Co 2.05% 35,840 $9.7M
23 Thomas Story & Son LLC 2.01% 21,050 $5.7M
24 Loudon Investment Management, LLC 1.82% 13,680 $3.7M
25 Integras Partners LLC 1.79% 12,003 $3.2M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Illinois Tool Wks Inc (ITW)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for ITW?

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added ITW than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for ITW?

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying: Last quarter: 888 funds reduced or exited vs 862 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for ITW holders?

Elite ownership — 62% AUM from top-100 funds: 69 of 1971 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 62% of total institutional value in ITW. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held ITW?

72% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 1,421 out of 1,977 hedge funds have held ITW for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Illinois Tool Wks Inc (ITW) following the 2026 Q2 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, ITW has moved -8.3% since the 2026 Q2 13F filing date (August 14, 2026), compared to -9.1% for the XLI sector ETF — an outperformance of +0.8%. Since the quarter end (June 30, 2026), ITW has gained -1.4% vs -8.4% for XLI. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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