Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

HARLEY DAVIDSON INC (HOG)

382 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in HOG. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

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Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -11
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
44%

Smart Money Signals — HOG

Based on 358 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their HOG positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 91% of 3.0Y peak

91% of all-time peak
358 funds currently hold this stock — 91% of the 3.0-year high of 393 funds (reached 2024 Q3). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 4% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
16 fewer hedge funds hold HOG compared to a year ago (-4% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 44% buying

172 buying222 selling
Last quarter: 222 funds reduced or exited vs 172 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+14 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new HOG position: 53 → 54 → 53 → 67. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒

75% of holders stayed for 2+ years

75% conviction (2yr+) 13% medium 12% new
268 out of 358 hedge funds have held HOG for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +4%, value -24%

Value
-23%
Shares
+3%
Last quarter: funds added +4% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -24%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

58 → 53 → 54 → 53 → 67 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 53 → 54 → 53 → 67. A growing number of institutions are discovering HOG each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 77% of holders stayed 2+ years

77% veterans 8% 1-2yr 15% new
Of 382 current holders: 294 (77%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 43% AUM from top-100 funds

43% from top-100 AUM funds
37 of 358 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 43% of total institutional value in HOG. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.1
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.1/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Hedge Fund Ownership: HOG

How many hedge funds hold HOG — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of HOG vs. share price

Market Analysis: HOG

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: HOG

-- --
Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

53 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
7.5
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
1.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: HOG
2026 Q1 Stats Unlock in 21 days 382 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in HOG. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2025 Q4) Prior (2025 Q3) Change
Funds Holding 382 391 -2.3%
13F Shares 111M 107M 3.51%
Total Value $2.27B $2.98B -23.79%
New Positions 70 53 +17
Increased Positions 143 156 -13
Closed Positions 80 46 +34
Reduced Positions 170 160 +10
Total Calls 13 12 8.33%
Total Puts 16 17 -5.88%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.23 1.42 Bearish

Statistics: HOG

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

382 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in HOG. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

Top 25 institutional holders of HOG — 2025 Q4 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Twelve Points Wealth Management LLC 0.31% 69,073 $1.4M
2 Westfuller Advisors, LLC 0.04% 4,160 $84K
3 CHICAGO TRUST Co NA 0.04% 10,978 $222K
4 GILPIN WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.02% 1,000 $20K
5 Louisiana State Employees Retirement System 0.01% 34,300
6 Leonteq Securities AG 0.01% 13,494 $273K
7 OPPENHEIMER & CO INC 0.01% 40,732 $824K
8 Retirement Systems of Alabama 0.01% 144,836 $2.9M
9 Ninety One UK Ltd 0.01% 206,172 $4.2M
10 Hickory Point Bank & Trust 0.01% 680 $14K
11 YOUSIF CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC 0.01% 37,331 $755K
12 Hilltop National Bank 0.01% 1,755 $35K
13 Investors Research Corp 0.01% 2,030 $41K
14 CoreCap Advisors, LLC 0.00% 7,060 $143K
15 GAMMA Investing LLC 0.00% 4,640 $94K
16 FIRST UNITED BANK & TRUST 0.00% 660 $13K
17 NEW YORK STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM 0.00% 84,144 $2K
18 Handelsbanken Fonder AB 0.00% 48,523
19 SG Americas Securities, LLC 0.00% 128,044 $3K
20 PFS Partners, LLC 0.00% 301 $6K
21 State of Alaska, Department of Revenue 0.00% 11,753
22 Quent Capital, LLC 0.00% 1,408 $28K
23 Curat Global, LLC 0.00% 100 $2K
24 EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS, LLC 0.00% 13,085 $265K
25 HHM Wealth Advisors, LLC 0.00% 800 $16K
Investor Ownership
History
% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — HARLEY DAVIDSON INC (HOG)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for HOG?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their HOG positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for HOG?

More sellers than buyers — 44% buying: Last quarter: 222 funds reduced or exited vs 172 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for HOG holders?

Elite ownership — 43% AUM from top-100 funds: 37 of 358 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 43% of total institutional value in HOG. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held HOG?

75% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 268 out of 358 hedge funds have held HOG for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.