Based on 45 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their HCM positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🔻
Below peak — only 69% of 3.0Y high
69% of all-time peak
Only 45 funds hold HCM today versus a peak of 65 funds at 2023 Q4 — just 69% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
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Outflows — 29% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
18 fewer hedge funds hold HCM compared to a year ago (-29% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 40% buying
18 buying27 selling
Last quarter: 27 funds reduced or exited vs 18 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~3 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 2 → 9 → 3 → 3. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
73% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 73% conviction (2yr+)
■ 16% medium
■ 11% new
33 out of 45 hedge funds have held HCM for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
⚠️
Saturation — most institutions already know this story
9 → 2 → 9 → 3 → 3 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 2 → 9 → 3 → 3. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 76% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 76% veterans
■ 13% 1-2yr
■ 11% new
Of 45 current holders: 34 (76%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 15% AUM from top-100
15% from top-100 AUM funds
12 of 45 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 15% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 2.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.