Based on 46 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📈
Buying streak — 6 quarters in a row
For 6 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added GRAF than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🔻
Below peak — only 40% of 3.0Y high
40% of all-time peak
Only 46 funds hold GRAF today versus a peak of 114 funds at 2022 Q2 — just 40% of the maximum. Low institutional ownership can mean the stock is out of favor, but it also means there's a large pool of potential buyers if sentiment turns.
🚀
Fast accumulation — +28% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+10 new funds entered over the past year (+28% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 35% buying
7 buying13 selling
Last quarter: 13 funds sold vs only 7 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~4 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 8 → 3 → 4. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔄
Mostly new holders — 22% entered in last year
■ 20% conviction (2yr+)
■ 59% medium
■ 22% new
Only 9 funds (20%) have held >2 years. The majority of current holders are relatively new to the position. New holders tend to sell faster when prices drop — a shallow conviction base that could amplify any sell-off.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares +1%, value -100%
Last quarter: funds added +1% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -100%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
⚠️
Saturation — most institutions already know this story
13 → 4 → 8 → 3 → 4 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 8 → 3 → 4. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
📊
Mixed cohorts — 30% veterans, 46% new entrants
■ 30% veterans
■ 24% 1-2yr
■ 46% new
Of 46 current holders: 14 (30%) held 2+ years, 11 held 1–2 years, 21 (46%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
✅
Strong quality — 25% AUM from major funds
25% from top-100 AUM funds
9 of 46 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 25% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 1.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.