Based on 104 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Selling streak — 3 quarters in a row
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GNMA positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊
High ownership — 87% of 3.0Y peak
87% of all-time peak
104 funds currently hold this stock — 87% of the 3.0-year high of 119 funds (reached 2023 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
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Outflows — 9% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
10 fewer hedge funds hold GNMA compared to a year ago (-9% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 48% buying
48 buying53 selling
Last quarter: 53 funds reduced or exited vs 48 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
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More new buyers each quarter (+7 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new GNMA position: 10 → 6 → 6 → 13. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
🔒
64% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 64% conviction (2yr+)
■ 27% medium
■ 9% new
67 out of 104 hedge funds have held GNMA for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
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Growing discovery — still being found
27 → 10 → 6 → 6 → 13 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 10 → 6 → 6 → 13. A growing number of institutions are discovering GNMA each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 56% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 56% veterans
■ 24% 1-2yr
■ 20% new
Of 104 current holders: 58 (56%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅
Strong quality — 21% AUM from major funds
21% from top-100 AUM funds
12 of 104 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 21% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 2.7/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.