Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Geo Group Inc (GEO)

261 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in GEO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -10
Streak
4Q ▼
Buyers last Q
48%

Smart Money Signals — GEO

Based on 263 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GEO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 88% of 3.0Y peak

88% of all-time peak
263 funds currently hold this stock — 88% of the 3.0-year high of 299 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 12% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
36 fewer hedge funds hold GEO compared to a year ago (-12% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 48% buying

145 buying155 selling
Last quarter: 155 funds reduced or exited vs 145 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~50 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 37 → 45 → 51 → 50. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 63% conviction (2yr+) ■ 20% medium ■ 17% new
165 out of 263 hedge funds have held GEO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

64 → 37 → 45 → 51 → 50 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 37 → 45 → 51 → 50. A growing number of institutions are discovering GEO each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 69% veterans vs 18% newcomers

■ 69% veterans ■ 13% 1-2yr ■ 18% new
Entry-cohort mix of 285 holders: 196 (69%) are 2+ year veterans, 37 entered 1–2 years ago, and 52 (18%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 32% AUM from major funds

32% from top-100 AUM funds
44 of 258 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 32% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
2.9
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — GEO

In 2026 Q1, 145 hedge funds were net buyers of GEO (50 opened a new position, 95 added to an existing one), while 155 reduced or exited (95 trimmed, 60 sold completely) — a 48% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. This extends a 4-quarter selling streak, suggesting sustained institutional caution. 32% of total institutional value in GEO is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -10 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 263.

Hedge Fund Ownership: GEO

How many hedge funds hold GEO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of GEO vs. share price

Market Analysis: GEO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: GEO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Geo Group Inc (GEO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much GEO has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLI) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
GEO
+70.3%
XLI
+10.5%

GEO outperformed XLI by +59.8% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
GEO
+24.9%
XLI
+4.2%

Since the filing became public, GEO outperformed XLI by +20.7% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

23 top-rated funds 7 high-conviction
Consensus
6.0
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
4.2
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: GEO
261 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in GEO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 261 273 -4.4%
13F Shares 137M 138M -1.35%
Total Value $2.17B $2.23B -2.87%
New Positions 49 51 -2
Increased Positions 83 91 -8
Closed Positions 61 63 -2
Reduced Positions 91 91 -
Total Calls 14 14 -
Total Puts 12 13 -7.69%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.86 0.93 Neutral

Statistics: GEO

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Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

261 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in GEO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 GEO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Kore Advisors LP 17.66% 975,580 $16.4M
2 Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd 15.40% 4,546,880 $76.4M
3 Windward Management LP 14.22% 1,100,700 $18.5M
4 Continental General Insurance Co 13.84% 5,709,302 $96.0M
5 KCM Capital Inc 5.39% 1,995,000 $33.5M
6 Findell Capital Management LLC 4.31% 875,000 $14.7M
7 Harber Asset Management LLC 2.87% 266,993 $4.5M
8 Ballast Asset Management, LP 2.40% 320,748 $5.4M
9 Park West Asset Management LLC 2.08% 1,455,390 $24.5M
10 Philosophy Capital Management LLC 1.77% 1,720,666 $28.9M
11 Hodges Capital Management Inc. 1.57% 1,128,999 $19.0M
12 Discovery Capital Management, LLC / Ct 1.25% 1,425,900 $24.0M
13 Tejara Capital Ltd 1.18% 213,000 $3.6M
14 Appian Way Asset Management LP 0.88% 239,168 $4.9M
15 Pentwater Capital Management LP 0.83% 9,565,000 $160.8M
16 Militia Capital Management LLC 0.82% 216,200 $3.6M
17 Lee Danner & Bass Inc 0.72% 685,500 $11.5M
18 Purewater Capital LLC 0.67% 41,926 $705K
19 Rubric Capital Management LP 0.67% 3,743,180 $62.9M
20 Shay Capital LLC 0.53% 378,069 $6.4M
21 First Dallas Securities Inc. 0.43% 68,620 $1.2M
22 CenterBook Partners LP 0.40% 441,548 $7.4M
23 Neo Ivy Capital Management 0.34% 77,618 $1.3M
24 ArrowMark Colorado Holdings LLC 0.31% 682,700 $11.5M
25 Intrinsic Edge Capital Management LLC 0.28% 100,000 $1.7M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Geo Group Inc (GEO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for GEO?

Selling streak — 4 quarters in a row: For 4 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GEO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for GEO?

More sellers than buyers — 48% buying: Last quarter: 155 funds reduced or exited vs 145 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for GEO holders?

Strong quality — 32% AUM from major funds: 44 of 258 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 32% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held GEO?

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 165 out of 263 hedge funds have held GEO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Geo Group Inc (GEO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, GEO has moved +24.9% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +4.2% for the XLI sector ETF — an outperformance of +20.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), GEO has gained +70.3% vs +10.5% for XLI. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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