Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)

653 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in GBTC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -68
Streak
2Q ▼
Buyers last Q
33%

Smart Money Signals — GBTC

Based on 656 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GBTC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 85% of 3.0Y peak

85% of all-time peak
656 funds currently hold this stock — 85% of the 3.0-year high of 771 funds (reached 2025 Q3). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 6% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
40 fewer hedge funds hold GBTC compared to a year ago (-6% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🔴

Heavy selling pressure — only 33% buying

192 buying390 selling
Last quarter: 390 funds sold vs only 192 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-17 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 103 → 87 → 84 → 67. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

49% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 49% conviction (2yr+) ■ 34% medium ■ 17% new
319 out of 656 hedge funds have held GBTC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -4%, value -26%

Value
-26%
Shares
-4%
Last quarter: funds added -4% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -26%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

57 → 103 → 87 → 84 → 67 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 103 → 87 → 84 → 67. GBTC is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
📊

Mixed cohorts — 6% veterans, 23% new entrants

■ 6% veterans ■ 71% 1-2yr ■ 23% new
Of 665 current holders: 43 (6%) held 2+ years, 471 held 1–2 years, 151 (23%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 9% AUM from top-100

9% from top-100 AUM funds
19 of 656 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 9% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
3.5
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — GBTC

In 2026 Q1, 192 hedge funds were net buyers of GBTC (67 opened a new position, 125 added to an existing one), while 390 reduced or exited (255 trimmed, 135 sold completely) — a 33% buyer ratio, indicating net institutional distribution. Net selling has persisted for two consecutive quarters. Net fund flow last quarter: -68 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 656.

Hedge Fund Ownership: GBTC

How many hedge funds hold GBTC — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of GBTC vs. share price

Market Analysis: GBTC

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: GBTC

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much GBTC has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
GBTC
-3.5%
SPY
+15.9%

GBTC outperformed SPY by -19.4% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
GBTC
-17.1%
SPY
+2.0%

Since the filing became public, GBTC outperformed SPY by -19.1% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

30 top-rated funds 7 high-conviction
Consensus
6.5
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: GBTC
653 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in GBTC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 653 724 -9.81%
13F Shares 34M 36M -4.44%
Total Value $1.95B $2.65B -26.22%
New Positions 65 84 -19
Increased Positions 121 162 -41
Closed Positions 136 131 +5
Reduced Positions 252 233 +19
Total Calls 9 10 -10.0%
Total Puts 4 5 -20.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.44 0.5 Bullish

Statistics: GBTC

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

653 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in GBTC. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 GBTC holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Msrh, LLC 32.21% 422,078 $28.9M
2 Horizon Kinetics Asset Management LLC 8.00% 14,004,882 $738.9M
3 Atlas Wealth Partners, LLC 7.61% 140,312 $7.4M
4 Mad River Investors 6.84% 360,139 $19.0M
5 Variant Private Wealth, LLC 4.58% 71,640 $3.8M
6 SLT Holdings LLC 4.43% 124,037 $6.5M
7 One Charles Private Wealth Services, LLC 3.66% 276,992 $14.6M
8 EagleClaw Capital Managment, LLC 2.63% 355,791 $18.8M
9 Guild Investment Management, Inc. 2.55% 67,640 $3.6M
10 Citrine Capital LLC 2.33% 101,811 $5.4M
11 Benson Wealth Management INC 1.93% 26,757 $1.4M
12 Haven Private, LLC 1.68% 73,162 $3.9M
13 Seal Cove Capital, LLC 1.56% 24,516 $1.7M
14 Once Capital Management, LLC 1.52% 107,700 $5.7M
15 Certior Financial Group, LLC 1.44% 42,990 $2.3M
16 Ridgepath Capital Management LLC 1.32% 50,324 $2.7M
17 Fielder Capital Group LLC 1.28% 111,292 $5.9M
18 HFG Wealth Management, LLC 1.21% 41,652 $2.2M
19 Illumine Investment Management, LLC 1.09% 26,951 $1.4M
20 Seldon Capital LP 1.09% 56,100 $3.0M
21 White Knight Strategic Wealth Advisors, LLC 1.05% 23,579 $1.2M
22 Sloy Dahl & Holst, LLC 0.97% 133,438 $7.0M
23 Ballast Financial Advisors LLC 0.96% 17,761 $937K
24 Alamea Verwaltungs GmbH 0.94% 22,446 $1.3M
25 Beaumont Financial Advisors, LLC 0.94% 258,734 $13.7M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for GBTC?

Selling streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds reduced or closed their GBTC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for GBTC?

Heavy selling pressure — only 33% buying: Last quarter: 390 funds sold vs only 192 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.

What is the fund quality score for GBTC holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 9% AUM from top-100: 19 of 656 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 9% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held GBTC?

49% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 319 out of 656 hedge funds have held GBTC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, GBTC has moved -17.1% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +2.0% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of -19.1%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), GBTC has gained -3.5% vs +15.9% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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