Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG)

205 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in FWRG. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +5
Streak
6Q ▲
Buyers last Q
55%

Smart Money Signals — FWRG

Based on 208 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 6 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 6 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added FWRG than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
208 hedge funds hold FWRG right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +36% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+55 new funds entered over the past year (+36% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 55% buying

131 buying108 selling
Last quarter: 131 funds bought or added vs 108 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
📈

More new buyers each quarter (+7 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new FWRG position: 35 → 29 → 44 → 51. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
📌

Mixed — 34% long-term, 31% new

■ 34% conviction (2yr+) ■ 35% medium ■ 31% new
Of the 208 current holders: 71 (34%) held >2 years, 72 held 1–2 years, and 65 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -4%, value -35%

Value
-35%
Shares
-3%
Last quarter: funds added -4% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -35%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

27 → 35 → 29 → 44 → 51 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 35 → 29 → 44 → 51. A growing number of institutions are discovering FWRG each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Deep conviction — 42% of holders stayed 2+ years

■ 42% veterans ■ 23% 1-2yr ■ 36% new
Of 213 current holders: 89 (42%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
🏆

Elite ownership — 46% AUM from top-100 funds

46% from top-100 AUM funds
45 of 208 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 46% of total institutional value in FWRG. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
4.3
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.3/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — FWRG

In 2026 Q1, 131 hedge funds were net buyers of FWRG (51 opened a new position, 80 added to an existing one), while 108 reduced or exited (62 trimmed, 46 sold completely) — a 55% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. This marks 6 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 46% of total institutional value in FWRG is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +5 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 208.

Hedge Fund Ownership: FWRG

How many hedge funds hold FWRG — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of FWRG vs. share price

Market Analysis: FWRG

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: FWRG

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much FWRG has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 77d ago
FWRG
+13.1%
XLY
+8.9%

FWRG outperformed XLY by +4.2% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 32d ago
FWRG
+5.5%
XLY
+1.9%

Since the filing became public, FWRG outperformed XLY by +3.6% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

21 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
5.8
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.7
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: FWRG
205 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in FWRG. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 205 203 0.99%
13F Shares 68M 71M -3.87%
Total Value $687M $1.06B -35.44%
New Positions 48 44 +4
Increased Positions 77 93 -16
Closed Positions 46 21 +25
Reduced Positions 61 53 +8
Total Calls 3 4 -25.0%
Total Puts 4 2 100.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.33 0.5 Bearish

Statistics: FWRG

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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

205 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in FWRG. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 FWRG holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Avory & Company, LLC 3.45% 254,147 $2.7M
2 Bwcp, LP 2.17% 1,358,073 $14.2M
3 Hodges Capital Management Inc. 1.29% 1,481,777 $15.5M
4 Penn Capital Management Company, LLC 0.93% 1,141,157 $12.0M
5 1492 Capital Management LLC 0.69% 172,938 $1.8M
6 First Dallas Securities Inc. 0.65% 166,750 $1.7M
7 Granahan Investment Management, LLC 0.55% 1,088,037 $11.4M
8 Riverbridge Partners LLC 0.54% 2,091,700 $21.9M
9 Access Investment Management LLC 0.45% 161,210 $1.7M
10 Paralel Advisors LLC 0.39% 900,000 $9.4M
11 VARCOV Co. 0.33% 83,750 $878K
12 Emerald Advisers, LLC 0.31% 947,110 $9.9M
13 Crawford Fund Management, LLC 0.30% 151,000 $1.6M
14 Emerald Mutual Fund Advisers Trust 0.29% 569,418 $6.0M
15 Stephens Investment Management Group LLC 0.24% 1,659,799 $17.4M
16 Diametric Capital, LP 0.21% 78,262 $820K
17 Dynamic Technology Lab Private Ltd 0.18% 108,094 $1.1M
18 ArrowMark Colorado Holdings LLC 0.14% 497,181 $5.2M
19 Scientech Research LLC 0.12% 14,160 $148K
20 White Pine Capital LLC 0.12% 41,631 $436K
21 Oxford Asset Management LLP 0.11% 23,812 $250K
22 Champlain Investment Partners, LLC 0.10% 764,931 $8.0M
23 Numerai GP LLC 0.10% 94,218 $987K
24 Gilder Gagnon Howe & Co LLC 0.09% 741,126 $7.8M
25 Accurate Wealth Management, LLC 0.09% 65,702 $754K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for FWRG?

Buying streak — 6 quarters in a row: For 6 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added FWRG than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for FWRG?

Slight buying edge — 55% buying: Last quarter: 131 funds bought or added vs 108 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for FWRG holders?

Elite ownership — 46% AUM from top-100 funds: 45 of 208 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 46% of total institutional value in FWRG. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held FWRG?

Mixed — 34% long-term, 31% new: Of the 208 current holders: 71 (34%) held >2 years, 72 held 1–2 years, and 65 entered in the last year. A mixed base — the stock has long-term believers but also recent buyers who haven't been tested by a downturn yet.

Is it too late to buy First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, FWRG has moved +5.5% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +1.9% for the XLY sector ETF — an outperformance of +3.6%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), FWRG has gained +13.1% vs +8.9% for XLY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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