Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Elastic N V (ESTC)

376 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in ESTC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -63
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
42%

Smart Money Signals — ESTC

Based on 377 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their ESTC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 85% of 3.0Y peak

85% of all-time peak
377 funds currently hold this stock — 85% of the 3.0-year high of 441 funds (reached 2025 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 12% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
52 fewer hedge funds hold ESTC compared to a year ago (-12% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 42% buying

195 buying273 selling
Last quarter: 273 funds reduced or exited vs 195 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-34 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 89 → 80 → 96 → 62. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 56% conviction (2yr+) ■ 23% medium ■ 21% new
211 out of 377 hedge funds have held ESTC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares +3%, value -33%

Value
-32%
Shares
+2%
Last quarter: funds added +3% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -33%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~62 new funds/quarter

76 → 89 → 80 → 96 → 62 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 89 → 80 → 96 → 62. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 65% veterans vs 23% newcomers

■ 65% veterans ■ 11% 1-2yr ■ 23% new
Entry-cohort mix of 396 holders: 259 (65%) are 2+ year veterans, 44 entered 1–2 years ago, and 93 (23%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 36% AUM from major funds

36% from top-100 AUM funds
49 of 372 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 36% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
3.2
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.2/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — ESTC

In 2026 Q1, 195 hedge funds were net buyers of ESTC (62 opened a new position, 133 added to an existing one), while 273 reduced or exited (148 trimmed, 125 sold completely) — a 42% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 36% of total institutional value in ESTC is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -63 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 377.

Hedge Fund Ownership: ESTC

How many hedge funds hold ESTC — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of ESTC vs. share price

Market Analysis: ESTC

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: ESTC

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Elastic N V (ESTC) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much ESTC has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLK) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
ESTC
+20.7%
XLK
+42.2%

ESTC outperformed XLK by -21.5% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
ESTC
+19.3%
XLK
+7.2%

Since the filing became public, ESTC outperformed XLK by +12.1% .

Interpretation: The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

33 top-rated funds 8 high-conviction
Consensus
6.6
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
5.0
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: ESTC
376 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in ESTC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 376 440 -14.55%
13F Shares 94M 91M 2.82%
Total Value $4.62B $6.87B -32.73%
New Positions 61 96 -35
Increased Positions 128 176 -48
Closed Positions 125 89 +36
Reduced Positions 141 123 +18
Total Calls 15 14 7.14%
Total Puts 9 12 -25.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.6 0.86 Bullish

Statistics: ESTC

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
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Income Statement & Cash Flow
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Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

376 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in ESTC. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 ESTC holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Daventry Group, LP 14.12% 248,037 $12.4M
2 Toronado Partners, LLC 11.56% 122,548 $6.1M
3 Sylebra Capital LLC 9.11% 1,409,793 $70.5M
4 RGM Capital, LLC 6.26% 1,710,069 $129.0M
5 Optimus Prime Fund Management Co., Ltd. 5.90% 1,224,200 $61.2M
6 Goldentree Asset Management LP 4.23% 1,429,383 $71.3M
7 Cypress Point Investment Management LP 3.68% 312,312 $15.6M
8 Lane Generational LLC 3.39% 85,312 $4.3M
9 Pamplona Capital Management, LLC 2.23% 210,600 $10.5M
10 Westerly Capital Management, LLC 2.04% 150,000 $7.5M
11 Archon Capital Management LLC 2.03% 72,000 $3.6M
12 No Street GP LP 2.00% 600,000 $30.0M
13 Philosophy Capital Management LLC 1.95% 635,010 $31.7M
14 Tejara Capital Ltd 1.67% 101,100 $5.1M
15 Alamar Capital Management, LLC 1.30% 42,730 $2.1M
16 Clearline Capital LP 1.15% 441,247 $22.1M
17 Mirova 0.97% 479,093 $23.9M
18 Freestone Grove Partners LP 0.80% 2,264,806 $113.2M
19 Planned Solutions, Inc. 0.73% 44,870 $2.2M
20 Alight Capital Management LP 0.66% 55,000 $2.7M
21 Wincap Financial LLC 0.57% 17,139 $857K
22 Kettle Hill Capital Management, LLC 0.55% 44,261 $2.2M
23 Washington Capital Management, Inc 0.49% 11,575 $579K
24 Soros Fund Management LLC 0.42% 761,000 $38.0M
25 Sunstone Asset Management, L.P. 0.39% 6,600 $330K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Elastic N V (ESTC)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for ESTC?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their ESTC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for ESTC?

More sellers than buyers — 42% buying: Last quarter: 273 funds reduced or exited vs 195 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for ESTC holders?

Strong quality — 36% AUM from major funds: 49 of 372 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 36% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held ESTC?

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 211 out of 377 hedge funds have held ESTC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Elastic N V (ESTC) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, ESTC has moved +19.3% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +7.2% for the XLK sector ETF — an outperformance of +12.1%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), ESTC has gained +20.7% vs +42.2% for XLK. The stock has meaningfully outrun its sector. The trade has partially played out; entry is at a premium to the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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