Based on 87 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their CMBS positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (98% of max)
98% of all-time peak
87 hedge funds hold CMBS right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
〰️
Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year
fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding CMBS is almost the same as a year ago (-1 funds, -1% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟢
More buyers than sellers — 60% buying
52 buying35 selling
Last quarter: 52 funds were net buyers (14 opened a brand new position + 38 added to an existing one). Only 35 were sellers (19 trimmed + 16 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~14 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 12 → 15 → 12 → 14. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
51% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 51% conviction (2yr+)
■ 26% medium
■ 23% new
44 out of 87 hedge funds have held CMBS for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~14 new funds/quarter
18 → 12 → 15 → 12 → 14 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 12 → 15 → 12 → 14. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 53% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 53% veterans
■ 15% 1-2yr
■ 32% new
Of 87 current holders: 46 (53%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅
Strong quality — 35% AUM from major funds
35% from top-100 AUM funds
14 of 87 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 35% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 3.5/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.