Based on 23 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their CAPTW positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊
High ownership — 82% of 3.0Y peak
82% of all-time peak
23 funds currently hold this stock — 82% of the 3.0-year high of 28 funds (reached 2024 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📶
Steady growth — +15% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+3 new funds entered over the past year (+15% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction. The peak was reached in just 4 quarters from the low — a sharp move.
🔴
Heavy selling pressure — only 25% buying
3 buying9 selling
Last quarter: 9 funds sold vs only 3 buyers. This is widespread institutional distribution — not a few funds rebalancing, but a broad exit. High conviction bearish signal.
➡️
Steady new buyers — ~2 new funds per quarter
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 1 → 6 → 2 → 2. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒
48% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 48% conviction (2yr+)
■ 26% medium
■ 26% new
11 out of 23 hedge funds have held CAPTW for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎
Buying through price weakness — shares +11%, value -100%
Last quarter: funds added +11% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -100%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
⚠️
Saturation — most institutions already know this story
3 → 1 → 6 → 2 → 2 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 1 → 6 → 2 → 2. Far fewer institutions are entering now vs. a year ago. When the pool of potential new buyers shrinks this fast, future price support from institutional inflows weakens significantly.
📊
Mixed cohorts — 4% veterans, 30% new entrants
■ 4% veterans
■ 65% 1-2yr
■ 30% new
Of 23 current holders: 1 (4%) held 2+ years, 15 held 1–2 years, 7 (30%) entered in the past year. Balanced distribution — some institutional memory, some recent momentum buyers.
✅
Strong quality — 36% AUM from major funds
36% from top-100 AUM funds
4 of 23 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 36% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
4.3
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.3/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.