Based on 44 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
📉
Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their CAPE positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️
At the ownership peak (96% of max)
96% of all-time peak
44 hedge funds hold CAPE right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶
Steady growth — +16% more funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
+6 new funds entered over the past year (+16% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟠
More sellers than buyers — 43% buying
16 buying21 selling
Last quarter: 21 funds reduced or exited vs 16 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️
Fewer new buyers each quarter (-6 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 4 → 4 → 8 → 2. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒
66% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 66% conviction (2yr+)
■ 20% medium
■ 14% new
29 out of 44 hedge funds have held CAPE for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️
Steady discovery — ~2 new funds/quarter
7 → 4 → 4 → 8 → 2 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 4 → 4 → 8 → 2. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️
Deep conviction — 66% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 66% veterans
■ 11% 1-2yr
■ 23% new
Of 44 current holders: 29 (66%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
📋
Smaller funds dominant — 7% AUM from top-100
7% from top-100 AUM funds
6 of 44 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 7% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
Exit risk score 3.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.