Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Arcos Dorados Hldgs Inc (ARCO)

159 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in ARCO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -2
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
50%

Smart Money Signals — ARCO

Based on 160 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their ARCO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 91% of 3.0Y peak

91% of all-time peak
160 funds currently hold this stock — 91% of the 3.0-year high of 176 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
〰️

Stable — ownership unchanged year-over-year

fund count last 6Q
The number of hedge funds holding ARCO is almost the same as a year ago (-5 funds, -3% change). No significant rush to buy or sell — institutional backing is holding steady.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 50% buying

78 buying78 selling
Last quarter: 78 funds bought or added vs 78 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~29 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 23 → 33 → 28 → 29. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

59% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 59% conviction (2yr+) ■ 22% medium ■ 19% new
94 out of 160 hedge funds have held ARCO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~29 new funds/quarter

34 → 23 → 33 → 28 → 29 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 23 → 33 → 28 → 29. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 66% veterans vs 19% newcomers

■ 66% veterans ■ 15% 1-2yr ■ 19% new
Entry-cohort mix of 164 holders: 109 (66%) are 2+ year veterans, 24 entered 1–2 years ago, and 31 (19%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
📋

Smaller funds dominant — 15% AUM from top-100

15% from top-100 AUM funds
30 of 160 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 15% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.
3.0
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.0/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — ARCO

In 2026 Q1, 78 hedge funds were net buyers of ARCO (29 opened a new position, 49 added to an existing one), while 78 reduced or exited (47 trimmed, 31 sold completely) — a 50% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. Net fund flow last quarter: -2 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 160.

Hedge Fund Ownership: ARCO

How many hedge funds hold ARCO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of ARCO vs. share price

Market Analysis: ARCO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: ARCO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Arcos Dorados Hldgs Inc (ARCO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much ARCO has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 79d ago
ARCO
+6.7%
XLY
+7.5%

ARCO outperformed XLY by -0.8% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 34d ago
ARCO
+8.2%
XLY
+0.5%

Since the filing became public, ARCO outperformed XLY by +7.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

11 top-rated funds 3 high-conviction
Consensus
4.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.8
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: ARCO
159 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in ARCO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 159 162 -1.85%
13F Shares 92M 89M 3.01%
Total Value $731M $652M 12.23%
New Positions 28 28 -
Increased Positions 48 58 -10
Closed Positions 31 25 +6
Reduced Positions 46 52 -6
Total Calls 2 2 -
Total Puts 2 0 100%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.0 0.0 Neutral

Statistics: ARCO

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

159 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in ARCO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 ARCO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Brightlight Capital Management LP 27.14% 3,334,760 $27.5M
2 Moerus Capital Management LLC 12.99% 4,263,589 $35.2M
3 Fundamenta Capital S.A. 6.65% 938,239 $7.7M
4 SPX Gestao de Recursos Ltda 4.08% 5,949,286 $49.1M
5 West Tower Group, LLC 2.83% 109,859 $906K
6 INCA Investments LLC 1.92% 654,392 $5.4M
7 Managed Asset Portfolios, LLC 1.53% 1,545,075 $12.7M
8 O'Keefe Stevens Advisory, Inc. 1.29% 631,729 $5.2M
9 Globeflex Capital L P 1.02% 815,609 $6.7M
10 Inlet Private Wealth, LLC 0.80% 378,888 $3.1M
11 Private Management Group Inc 0.80% 3,355,886 $27.7M
12 Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC 0.76% 400,000 $3.3M
13 ABS Direct Equity Fund LLC 0.69% 109,882 $907K
14 American Capital Advisory, LLC 0.62% 185,836 $1.5M
15 General American Investors Co Inc 0.52% 950,178 $7.8M
16 Auxier Asset Management LLC 0.50% 419,547 $3.5M
17 Olympiad Research LP 0.49% 19,386 $160K
18 VELA Investment Management, LLC 0.32% 167,400 $1.4M
19 Lazard Asset Management LLC 0.31% 23,174,841 $191.2M
20 Mirabella Financial Services LLP 0.30% 388,112 $3.2M
21 Pzena Investment Management LLC 0.29% 10,741,166 $88.6M
22 Acorn Financial Advisory Services Inc /Adv 0.25% 218,167 $1.8M
23 Hussman Strategic Advisors, INC. 0.19% 105,000 $866K
24 WJ Financial Advisors LLC 0.18% 27,620 $228K
25 Deltec Asset Management LLC 0.18% 120,400 $993K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Arcos Dorados Hldgs Inc (ARCO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for ARCO?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their ARCO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for ARCO?

Slight buying edge — 50% buying: Last quarter: 78 funds bought or added vs 78 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for ARCO holders?

Smaller funds dominant — 15% AUM from top-100: 30 of 160 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, but together hold only 15% of total institutional value. The stock is held primarily by smaller and mid-sized funds.

How long have hedge funds held ARCO?

59% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 94 out of 160 hedge funds have held ARCO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Arcos Dorados Hldgs Inc (ARCO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, ARCO has moved +8.2% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +0.5% for the XLY sector ETF — an outperformance of +7.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), ARCO has gained +6.7% vs +7.5% for XLY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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