Based on 147 hedge funds · latest filing: 2025 Q4 · updated quarterly
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Buying streak — 1 quarter in a row
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds added AMBC than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
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High ownership — 84% of 3.0Y peak
84% of all-time peak
147 funds currently hold this stock — 84% of the 3.0-year high of 175 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
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Outflows — 15% fewer funds vs a year ago
fund count last 6Q
26 fewer hedge funds hold AMBC compared to a year ago (-15% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
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More sellers than buyers — 40% buying
59 buying90 selling
Last quarter: 90 funds reduced or exited vs 59 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
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More new buyers each quarter (+8 vs last Q)
new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening a new AMBC position: 35 → 31 → 22 → 30. A growing influx of new institutional buyers means the asset is still gathering momentum — the consensus hasn't fully saturated yet.
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62% of holders stayed for 2+ years
■ 62% conviction (2yr+)
■ 24% medium
■ 14% new
91 out of 147 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
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Buying through price weakness — shares -9%, value -48%
Last quarter: funds added -9% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -48%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
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Peak discovery — momentum slowing
22 → 35 → 31 → 22 → 30 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 35 → 31 → 22 → 30. AMBC is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
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Deep conviction — 73% of holders stayed 2+ years
■ 73% veterans
■ 9% 1-2yr
■ 18% new
Of 159 current holders: 116 (73%) have held for over 2 years without selling. These are not momentum buyers — they have lived through drawdowns and stayed. A large veteran base acts as a stabilizing force during selloffs.
✅
Strong quality — 27% AUM from major funds
27% from top-100 AUM funds
26 of 147 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 27% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
Exit risk score 3.1/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.