Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Octave Specialty Group Inc (AMBC)

144 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -4
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
43%

Smart Money Signals — AMBC

Based on 145 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AMBC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 80% of 3.0Y peak

80% of all-time peak
145 funds currently hold this stock — 80% of the 3.0-year high of 182 funds (reached 2024 Q2). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 17% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
29 fewer hedge funds hold AMBC compared to a year ago (-17% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying

71 buying94 selling
Last quarter: 94 funds reduced or exited vs 71 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~35 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 31 → 22 → 31 → 35. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 63% conviction (2yr+) ■ 15% medium ■ 22% new
91 out of 145 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -17%, value -50%

Value
-50%
Shares
-16%
Last quarter: funds added -17% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -50%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📈

Growing discovery — still being found

35 → 31 → 22 → 31 → 35 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 31 → 22 → 31 → 35. A growing number of institutions are discovering AMBC each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 67% veterans vs 24% newcomers

■ 67% veterans ■ 9% 1-2yr ■ 24% new
Entry-cohort mix of 152 holders: 102 (67%) are 2+ year veterans, 14 entered 1–2 years ago, and 36 (24%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 24% AUM from major funds

24% from top-100 AUM funds
34 of 145 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 24% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
2.9
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.9/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AMBC

In 2026 Q1, 71 hedge funds were net buyers of AMBC (35 opened a new position, 36 added to an existing one), while 94 reduced or exited (55 trimmed, 39 sold completely) — a 43% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 24% of total institutional value in AMBC is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -4 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 145.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AMBC

How many hedge funds hold AMBC — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AMBC vs. share price

Market Analysis: AMBC

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AMBC

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

20 top-rated funds 0 high-conviction
Consensus
5.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
0.8
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AMBC
144 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AMBC. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 144 149 -3.36%
13F Shares 33M 39M -16.77%
Total Value $152M $305M -50.27%
New Positions 34 31 +3
Increased Positions 32 28 +4
Closed Positions 39 15 +24
Reduced Positions 54 71 -17
Total Calls 3 7 -57.14%
Total Puts 4 7 -42.86%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.33 1.0 Bearish

Statistics: AMBC

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Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

144 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AMBC. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AMBC holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Western Standard LLC 5.50% 2,247,591 $10.5M
2 Bain Capital Credit, LP 1.70% 1,108,012 $5.2M
3 Third Avenue Management LLC 1.01% 1,341,211 $6.2M
4 Prescott Group Capital Management, L.L.C. 0.74% 1,592,587 $7.4M
5 Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP 0.66% 1,470,334 $6.8M
6 Arrowpoint Investment Partners (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 0.58% 139,168 $647K
7 Essex Investment Management Co LLC 0.31% 418,203 $1.9M
8 IPG Investment Advisors LLC 0.26% 325,616 $1.5M
9 Cruiser Capital Advisors, LLC 0.20% 108,798 $506K
10 Harbor Advisors LLC 0.13% 196,382 $913K
11 Park Capital Management, LLC / WI 0.10% 21,262 $99K
12 Gendell Jeffrey L 0.09% 1,413,212 $6.6M
13 Bracebridge Capital, LLC 0.07% 579,234 $2.7M
14 Nebula Research & Development LLC 0.06% 107,124 $761K
15 Legato Capital Management LLC 0.06% 130,760 $608K
16 Brooklyn Investment Group 0.05% 325,351 $1.5M
17 Gwn Securities INC. 0.03% 36,404 $169K
18 Empirical Asset Management, LLC 0.03% 23,440 $109K
19 Anchyra Partners LLC 0.02% 16,328 $76K
20 Commonwealth Financial Services, LLC 0.02% 29,008 $135K
21 Gator Capital Management, LLC 0.02% 21,435 $100K
22 Able Wealth Management LLC 0.02% 15,246 $71K
23 Caption Management, LLC 0.02% 642,597 $3.0M
24 Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc 0.02% 884,272 $4.1M
25 Bridgeway Capital Management, LLC 0.02% 182,504 $849K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Octave Specialty Group Inc (AMBC)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AMBC?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AMBC positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for AMBC?

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying: Last quarter: 94 funds reduced or exited vs 71 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for AMBC holders?

Strong quality — 24% AUM from major funds: 34 of 145 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 24% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held AMBC?

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 91 out of 145 hedge funds have held AMBC for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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