Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Adecoagro S A (AGRO)

89 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AGRO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -2
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
57%

Smart Money Signals — AGRO

Based on 90 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AGRO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 75% of 3.0Y peak

75% of all-time peak
90 funds currently hold this stock — 75% of the 3.0-year high of 120 funds (reached 2025 Q1). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
📉

Outflows — 25% fewer funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
30 fewer hedge funds hold AGRO compared to a year ago (-25% decline). When institutions consistently reduce their exposure, it's worth exploring the underlying fundamental reasons driving them away.
🟡

Slight buying edge — 57% buying

61 buying46 selling
Last quarter: 61 funds bought or added vs 46 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~25 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 11 → 13 → 28 → 25. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 56% conviction (2yr+) ■ 19% medium ■ 26% new
50 out of 90 hedge funds have held AGRO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Value +73% but shares only +2% — price-driven

Value
+72%
Shares
+2%
Last quarter: the total dollar value of institutional holdings rose +73%, but actual share count only changed +2%. The gap is explained by the stock's price rising — not new buying. Strong value growth with weak share growth means the rally is price momentum, not fresh institutional demand.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

30 → 11 → 13 → 28 → 25 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 11 → 13 → 28 → 25. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 64% veterans vs 22% newcomers

■ 64% veterans ■ 13% 1-2yr ■ 22% new
Entry-cohort mix of 98 holders: 63 (64%) are 2+ year veterans, 13 entered 1–2 years ago, and 22 (22%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
✅

Strong quality — 37% AUM from major funds

37% from top-100 AUM funds
19 of 88 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 37% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.
2.4
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 2.4/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AGRO

In 2026 Q1, 61 hedge funds were net buyers of AGRO (25 opened a new position, 36 added to an existing one), while 46 reduced or exited (19 trimmed, 27 sold completely) — a 57% buyer ratio, indicating a slight buying edge. 37% of total institutional value in AGRO is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting strong institutional quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -2 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 90.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AGRO

How many hedge funds hold AGRO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AGRO vs. share price

Market Analysis: AGRO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AGRO

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Adecoagro S A (AGRO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much AGRO has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLP) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 78d ago
AGRO
-36.0%
XLP
+2.7%

AGRO outperformed XLP by -38.7% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 33d ago
AGRO
-26.7%
XLP
-0.5%

Since the filing became public, AGRO outperformed XLP by -26.2% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

6 top-rated funds 3 high-conviction
Consensus
3.7
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.3
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AGRO
89 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AGRO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 89 92 -3.26%
13F Shares 16M 15M 1.95%
Total Value $216M $125M 72.56%
New Positions 24 28 -4
Increased Positions 36 26 +10
Closed Positions 27 23 +4
Reduced Positions 16 22 -6
Total Calls 6 3 100.0%
Total Puts 4 2 100.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.67 0.67 Bullish

Statistics: AGRO

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Beta (5Y Monthly) --
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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Total Cash (mrq) --
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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

89 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AGRO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AGRO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Sagil Capital LLP 2.88% 503,476 $7.6M
2 Walnut Level Capital LLC 2.53% 198,317 $3.0M
3 Praxis Capital Management LLC 2.49% 71,000 $1.1M
4 Decker Retirement Planning Inc. 2.10% 308,170 $4.6M
5 Discovery Capital Management, LLC / Ct 0.99% 1,274,217 $19.1M
6 Stonebridge Financial Group, LLC / MO 0.94% 74,619 $1.1M
7 Comprehensive Money Management Services LLC 0.73% 73,733 $1.1M
8 Wexford Capital LP 0.64% 294,030 $4.4M
9 PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. 0.59% 250,000 $3.8M
10 Hussman Strategic Advisors, INC. 0.34% 105,000 $1.6M
11 Polymer Capital Management (US) LLC 0.18% 118,400 $1.8M
12 Burkehill Global Management, LP 0.15% 200,000 $3.0M
13 Fox Run Management, L.L.C. 0.13% 48,202 $735K
14 Pinpoint Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 0.12% 34,222 $514K
15 Rockingstone Advisors LLC 0.12% 17,180 $258K
16 Ping Capital Management, INC. 0.11% 25,100 $377K
17 Caitong International Asset Management Co., Ltd 0.10% 35,013 $526K
18 Quent Capital, LLC 0.08% 74,980 $1.1M
19 PDT Partners, LLC 0.06% 62,212 $934K
20 Axq Capital, LP 0.04% 21,589 $324K
21 Jump Financial, LLC 0.04% 201,607 $3.0M
22 DGS Capital Management, LLC 0.04% 15,130 $227K
23 Hilltop Holdings Inc. 0.04% 27,068 $407K
24 Engineers Gate Manager LP 0.03% 175,969 $2.6M
25 Pinnacle Holdings, LLC 0.02% 4,880 $73K
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Adecoagro S A (AGRO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AGRO?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AGRO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for AGRO?

Slight buying edge — 57% buying: Last quarter: 61 funds bought or added vs 46 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for AGRO holders?

Strong quality — 37% AUM from major funds: 19 of 88 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 37% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held AGRO?

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 50 out of 90 hedge funds have held AGRO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Adecoagro S A (AGRO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, AGRO has moved -26.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to -0.5% for the XLP sector ETF — an outperformance of -26.2%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), AGRO has gained -36.0% vs +2.7% for XLP. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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