Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

361 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AGO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -4
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
43%

Smart Money Signals — AGO

Based on 365 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q2 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AGO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (99% of max)

99% of all-time peak
365 hedge funds hold AGO right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
📶

Steady growth — +4% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+15 new funds entered over the past year (+4% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying

164 buying216 selling
Last quarter: 216 funds reduced or exited vs 164 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~56 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 43 → 65 → 61 → 56. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 65% conviction (2yr+) ■ 18% medium ■ 17% new
237 out of 365 hedge funds have held AGO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
➡️

Steady discovery — ~56 new funds/quarter

57 → 43 → 65 → 61 → 56 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 43 → 65 → 61 → 56. Consistent flow of new institutional buyers without clear acceleration or slowdown.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 70% veterans vs 19% newcomers

■ 70% veterans ■ 12% 1-2yr ■ 19% new
Entry-cohort mix of 371 holders: 259 (70%) are 2+ year veterans, 43 entered 1–2 years ago, and 69 (19%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 58% AUM from top-100 funds

58% from top-100 AUM funds
59 of 364 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 58% of total institutional value in AGO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.8
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.8/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AGO

In 2026 Q2, 164 hedge funds were net buyers of AGO (56 opened a new position, 108 added to an existing one), while 216 reduced or exited (156 trimmed, 60 sold completely) — a 43% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 58% of total institutional value in AGO is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -4 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 365.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AGO

How many hedge funds hold AGO — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AGO vs. share price

Market Analysis: AGO

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AGO

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Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Loading signal freshness…
Smart Money Signal ?
Limited Smart Money Interest

No strong consensus or elite conviction detected among institutional holders.

16 top-rated funds 1 high-conviction
Consensus
5.3
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
2.1
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AGO
361 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AGO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q2) Prior (2026 Q1) Change
Funds Holding 361 369 -2.17%
13F Shares 41M 42M -0.66%
Total Value $3.28B $3.36B -2.35%
New Positions 55 61 -6
Increased Positions 106 137 -31
Closed Positions 62 50 +12
Reduced Positions 153 118 +35
Total Calls 4 3 33.33%
Total Puts 3 2 50.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.75 0.67 Neutral

Statistics: AGO

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q2)

361 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AGO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AGO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q2 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Reinhart Partners, LLC. 2.28% 1,246,181 $99.9M
2 TT Capital Management LLC 1.29% 20,626 $1.7M
3 River Road Asset Management, LLC 1.03% 1,160,270 $93.0M
4 LRI Investments, LLC 0.95% 147,309 $11.8M
5 Pine Valley Investments Ltd Liability Co 0.80% 253,136 $20.3M
6 Long Focus Capital Management, LLC 0.78% 380,000 $30.5M
7 Royce & Associates LP 0.68% 1,060,397 $84.9M
8 Chou Associates Management Inc. 0.63% 16,990 $1.4M
9 VELA Investment Management, LLC 0.61% 35,791 $2.9M
10 Gendell Jeffrey L 0.51% 726,136 $58.2M
11 Cambria Investment Management, L.P. 0.47% 118,624 $9.5M
12 De Lisle Partners LLP 0.35% 39,721 $3.2M
13 Diametric Capital, LP 0.22% 26,424 $2.1M
14 EntryPoint Capital, LLC 0.21% 3,922 $303K
15 Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, INC. 0.18% 820,652 $65.8M
16 R Squared Ltd 0.13% 3,187 $255K
17 Moneco Advisors, LLC 0.13% 26,399 $2.1M
18 Mraz, Amerine & Associates, Inc. 0.11% 9,888 $793K
19 Lecap Asset Management Ltd 0.11% 3,229 $259K
20 James Investment Research, INC. 0.11% 13,450 $1.1M
21 Sagewood Asset Management LP 0.10% 5,259 $422K
22 Front Row Advisors LLC 0.09% 4,133 $311K
23 Frec Markets, Inc. 0.08% 11,545 $925K
24 EULAV Asset Management 0.08% 32,000 $2.6M
25 First Trust Advisors LP 0.07% 1,518,088 $121.7M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AGO?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AGO positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for AGO?

More sellers than buyers — 43% buying: Last quarter: 216 funds reduced or exited vs 164 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for AGO holders?

Elite ownership — 58% AUM from top-100 funds: 59 of 364 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 58% of total institutional value in AGO. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held AGO?

65% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 237 out of 365 hedge funds have held AGO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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