Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO): Hedge Fund Ownership & Smart Money Signals (Q1 2026)

Q: Is it too late to buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, AGO has moved nan% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +4.8% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of nan%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), AGO gained nan% vs +8.5% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

362 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AGO. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Smart Money Signals — AGO

Based on 366 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row

last 6Q

For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added AGO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak

366 hedge funds hold AGO right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.

📶

Steady growth — +11% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q

+37 new funds entered over the past year (+11% YoY). Gradual, steady growth in institutional ownership is generally a healthy signal — not a speculative rush, but consistent conviction.

🟡

Slight buying edge — 54% buying

198 buying168 selling

Last quarter: 198 funds bought or added vs 168 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

➡️

Steady new buyers — ~60 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter

Funds opening this position for the first time: 55 → 43 → 64 → 60. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.

🔒

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 63% conviction (2yr+) ■ 19% medium ■ 18% new

232 out of 366 hedge funds have held AGO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

📈

Growing discovery — still being found

49 → 55 → 43 → 64 → 60 new funds/Q

New funds entering each quarter: 55 → 43 → 64 → 60. A growing number of institutions are discovering AGO each quarter. The narrative is still spreading — leaving room for ongoing capital accumulation.

🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 68% veterans vs 20% newcomers

■ 68% veterans ■ 12% 1-2yr ■ 20% new

Entry-cohort mix of 370 holders: 252 (68%) are 2+ year veterans, 43 entered 1–2 years ago, and 75 (20%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.

✅

Strong quality — 39% AUM from major funds

39% from top-100 AUM funds

53 of 365 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 39% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

3.6

out of 10

Low Exit Risk

Exit risk score 3.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Metric	All 13F Filers (2026 Q1)	Prior (2025 Q4)	Change
Funds Holding	362	357	1.4%
13F Shares	41M	42M	-2.42%
Total Value	$3.29B	$3.74B	-11.99%
New Positions	58	64	-6
Increased Positions	137	108	+29
Closed Positions	53	38	+15
Reduced Positions	115	125	-10
Total Calls	2	3	-33.33%
Total Puts	2	4	-50.0%
PUT/CALL Ratio	1.0	1.33	Neutral

Metric

All 13F Filers (2026 Q1)

Prior (2025 Q4)

Change

Funds Holding

362

357

1.4%

13F Shares

41M

42M

-2.42%

Total Value

$3.29B

$3.74B

-11.99%

New Positions

-6

Increased Positions

137

108

+29

Closed Positions

+15

Reduced Positions

115

125

-10

Total Calls

-33.33%

Total Puts

-50.0%

PUT/CALL Ratio

1.0

1.33

Neutral

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

362 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AGO. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:

FILTER:All New Added To Reduced No Change | Overweight >5%

Top 25 AGO holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
#	Investor	% of Portfolio	Shares	Mkt Value
1	Reinhart Partners, LLC.	3.01%	1,287,173	$104.9M
2	River Road Asset Management, LLC	1.75%	1,891,378	$154.1M
3	LRI Investments, LLC	1.23%	170,065	$13.9M
4	Pine Valley Investments Ltd Liability Co	0.95%	253,436	$20.6M
5	Long Focus Capital Management, LLC	0.81%	380,000	$31.0M
6	Royce & Associates LP	0.79%	982,147	$80.0M
7	VELA Investment Management, LLC	0.67%	35,791	$2.9M
8	Chou Associates Management Inc.	0.66%	16,990	$1.4M
9	Cambria Investment Management, L.P.	0.50%	110,657	$9.0M
10	De Lisle Partners LLP	0.39%	39,721	$3.2M
11	Sapience Investments, LLC	0.32%	30	$2K
12	Diametric Capital, LP	0.31%	14,662	$1.2M
13	Gendell Jeffrey L	0.27%	245,422	$20.0M
14	Fuller & Thaler Asset Management, INC.	0.23%	849,653	$69.2M
15	Sagewood Asset Management LP	0.20%	7,736	$630K
16	Oak Thistle LLC	0.18%	22,225	$1.8M
17	Bayforest Capital Ltd	0.17%	1,833	$149K
18	EULAV Asset Management	0.16%	60,000	$4.9M
19	Verdence Capital Advisors LLC	0.14%	28,982	$2.4M
20	James Investment Research, INC.	0.12%	13,456	$1.1M
21	Mraz, Amerine & Associates, Inc.	0.12%	10,053	$819K
22	Front Row Advisors LLC	0.12%	4,233	$345K
23	iSAM Funds (UK) Ltd	0.11%	2,731	$223K
24	Lecap Asset Management Ltd	0.10%	3,389	$276K
25	EntryPoint Capital, LLC	0.10%	4,041	$329K

Investor	Ownership History	% of Portfolio	Prev %	Rank	Conviction	Avg Buy Price	13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y	Sell Timing	Shares	Mkt Value	Change	Change %	Source	Quarter	Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AGO?

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row: For 2 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added AGO than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for AGO?

Slight buying edge — 54% buying: Last quarter: 198 funds bought or added vs 168 that reduced or exited. It's nearly a 50/50 split — some institutions are convinced, others are taking profits. This mixed picture is normal near price highs.

What is the fund quality score for AGO holders?

Strong quality — 39% AUM from major funds: 53 of 365 holders rank in the top 100 by AUM, accounting for 39% of total institutional value held. A meaningful share of the ownership value comes from the most well-resourced institutions.

How long have hedge funds held AGO?

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 232 out of 366 hedge funds have held AGO for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, AGO has moved nan% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +4.8% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of nan%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), AGO has gained nan% vs +8.5% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

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Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

Smart Money Signals — AGO

Buying streak — 2 quarters in a row

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

Steady growth — +11% more funds vs a year ago

Slight buying edge — 54% buying

Steady new buyers — ~60 new funds per quarter

63% of holders stayed for 2+ years

Growing discovery — still being found

Veteran-anchored — 68% veterans vs 20% newcomers

Strong quality — 39% AUM from major funds

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AGO

Hedge Fund Ownership: AGO

Market Analysis: AGO

Analyst Price Targets

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Company Profile: AGO

Is It Too Late to Buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Hedge Fund Positioning: AGO

Statistics: AGO

Valuation Measures Data as of: --

Financial Highlights

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

Frequently Asked Questions — Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO)

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