Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Affirm Hldgs Inc (AFRM)

593 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AFRM. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↓ -40
Streak
1Q ▼
Buyers last Q
49%

Smart Money Signals — AFRM

Based on 598 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📉

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row

last 6Q
For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AFRM positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.
📊

High ownership — 94% of 3.0Y peak

94% of all-time peak
598 funds currently hold this stock — 94% of the 3.0-year high of 638 funds (reached 2025 Q4). Ownership is elevated but not yet at maximum concentration. Room to grow, but watch if the trend reverses.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +22% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+109 new funds entered over the past year (+22% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟠

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying

336 buying347 selling
Last quarter: 347 funds reduced or exited vs 336 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.
⚠️

Fewer new buyers each quarter (-32 vs last Q)

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 135 → 152 → 126 → 94. Each quarter fewer new institutions are entering. This usually means most funds that wanted in are already in — the stock is well-known but the pool of potential new buyers is shrinking.
🔒

45% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 45% conviction (2yr+) ■ 28% medium ■ 27% new
271 out of 598 hedge funds have held AFRM for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💎

Buying through price weakness — shares -6%, value -42%

Value
-42%
Shares
-5%
Last quarter: funds added -6% more shares while total portfolio value only changed -42%. Institutions were buying while the price was falling — a high-conviction accumulation signal. They're deliberately loading up on the dip.
📊

Peak discovery — momentum slowing

94 → 135 → 152 → 126 → 94 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 135 → 152 → 126 → 94. AFRM is well-known in the hedge fund world, but fresh entries are gradually declining. The explosive phase of institutional discovery is likely behind us.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 59% veterans vs 31% newcomers

■ 59% veterans ■ 10% 1-2yr ■ 31% new
Entry-cohort mix of 651 holders: 382 (59%) are 2+ year veterans, 67 entered 1–2 years ago, and 202 (31%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 60% AUM from top-100 funds

60% from top-100 AUM funds
62 of 589 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 60% of total institutional value in AFRM. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
3.6
out of 10
Low Exit Risk
Exit risk score 3.6/10 — low institutional crowding. Ownership is below peak levels, holder base is relatively sticky, and buying momentum is positive.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AFRM

In 2026 Q1, 336 hedge funds were net buyers of AFRM (94 opened a new position, 242 added to an existing one), while 347 reduced or exited (213 trimmed, 134 sold completely) — a 49% buyer ratio, indicating roughly balanced activity. 60% of total institutional value in AFRM is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: -40 funds (more exits than new entries). Total institutional holders: 598.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AFRM

How many hedge funds hold AFRM — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AFRM vs. share price

Market Analysis: AFRM

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AFRM

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Affirm Hldgs Inc (AFRM) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much AFRM has moved relative to its sector benchmark (XLF) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 79d ago
AFRM
+54.4%
XLF
+9.5%

AFRM outperformed XLF by +44.9% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 34d ago
AFRM
+7.5%
XLF
+5.8%

Since the filing became public, AFRM outperformed XLF by +1.7% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

44 top-rated funds 13 high-conviction
Consensus
7.2
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
3.9
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AFRM
593 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AFRM. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 593 638 -7.05%
13F Shares 253M 269M -5.81%
Total Value $11.47B $19.84B -42.18%
New Positions 93 126 -33
Increased Positions 226 247 -21
Closed Positions 138 104 +34
Reduced Positions 199 182 +17
Total Calls 30 32 -6.25%
Total Puts 31 36 -13.89%
PUT/CALL Ratio 1.03 1.12 Neutral

Statistics: AFRM

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Valuation Measures Data as of: --

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Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

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Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

593 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AFRM. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AFRM holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Abdiel Capital Advisors, LP 11.86% 134,741 $6.2M
2 Islander Capital Partners, L.P. 11.83% 794,800 $36.4M
3 Islander Capital Partners, L.P. 8.48% 570,000 $26.1M
4 ThornTree Capital Partners LP 6.78% 834,289 $38.2M
5 Q Fund Management (Hong Kong) Ltd 6.02% 86,200 $6.4M
6 Spyglass Capital Management LLC 5.73% 1,662,325 $76.2M
7 Allen Operations LLC 4.94% 721,382 $33.1M
8 Karl Kapital LLC 4.45% 140,290 $6.4M
9 RJA Asset Management LLC 4.14% 245,500 $11.2M
10 12 West Capital Management LP 4.14% 535,000 $24.5M
11 Intercapital, LLC 3.57% 233,368 $10.7M
12 Foxhaven Asset Management, LP 3.17% 2,205,556 $101.1M
13 Catalyst Private Wealth, LLC 3.10% 124,897 $5.7M
14 Leo Wealth, LLC 3.08% 924,622 $42.4M
15 Steadview Capital Management LLC 2.93% 144,815 $6.6M
16 Glendon Capital Management LP 2.93% 514,100 $23.6M
17 Diversify Advisory Services, LLC 2.72% 280,693 $17.8M
18 Bienville Capital Management, LLC 2.72% 326,395 $15.0M
19 Durable Capital Partners LP 2.66% 5,649,434 $258.9M
20 Dilation Capital Management LP 2.57% 111,717 $5.1M
21 REX Advisers, LLC 2.31% 16,700 $765K
22 Evolutionary Tree Capital Management, LLC 2.12% 24,574 $1.1M
23 Tremblant Capital Group 2.06% 1,397,248 $64.0M
24 Capital Impact Advisors, LLC 2.04% 109,917 $5.0M
25 Ardmore Road Asset Management LP 1.81% 600,000 $27.5M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Affirm Hldgs Inc (AFRM)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AFRM?

Selling streak — 1 quarter in a row: For 1 consecutive quarter, more hedge funds reduced or closed their AFRM positions than added to them. Sustained institutional selling is a meaningful warning sign — these are professionals with deep research teams collectively deciding to exit.

What is the institutional breadth score for AFRM?

More sellers than buyers — 49% buying: Last quarter: 347 funds reduced or exited vs 336 that bought or added. When more than half of active funds are selling, it's a caution flag — especially if the stock price hasn't moved down yet.

What is the fund quality score for AFRM holders?

Elite ownership — 60% AUM from top-100 funds: 62 of 589 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 60% of total institutional value in AFRM. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held AFRM?

45% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 271 out of 598 hedge funds have held AFRM for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Affirm Hldgs Inc (AFRM) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, AFRM has moved +7.5% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +5.8% for the XLF sector ETF — an outperformance of +1.7%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), AFRM has gained +54.4% vs +9.5% for XLF. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

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