Stock Analysis
Data Source: SEC EDGAR 13F
Updated Hourly

Alcoa Corp (AA)

747 + Investors. Track Smart Money conviction in AA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Current Price
-- USD
Analyst Target
-- (0 analysts)
Upside
0.00%
Net Flow Q/Q
↑ +113
Streak
3Q ▲
Buyers last Q
64%

Smart Money Signals — AA

Based on 752 hedge funds · latest filing: 2026 Q1 · updated quarterly

📈

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row

last 6Q
For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added AA than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.
🏔️

At the ownership peak (100% of max)

100% of all-time peak
752 hedge funds hold AA right now — the highest count in 3.0 years. When ownership is this concentrated, any bad news can trigger a chain reaction: one big fund sells, others follow. This is a classic 'crowded trade' — high popularity doesn't equal safety.
🚀

Fast accumulation — +48% more funds vs a year ago

fund count last 6Q
+243 new funds entered over the past year (+48% YoY). That's a rapid rush of institutional money. Fast accumulation often signals a major thesis — but it also means the stock could fall quickly if that thesis breaks.
🟢

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying

488 buying277 selling
Last quarter: 488 funds were net buyers (195 opened a brand new position + 293 added to an existing one). Only 277 were sellers (195 trimmed + 82 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.
➡️

Steady new buyers — ~195 new funds per quarter

new funds entering per quarter
Funds opening this position for the first time: 67 → 99 → 199 → 195. A stable flow of new institutional buyers suggests ongoing interest without signs of either acceleration or slowdown.
🔒

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years

■ 56% conviction (2yr+) ■ 18% medium ■ 27% new
418 out of 752 hedge funds have held AA for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.
💰

Price up while funds trimmed (+16% value, -5% shares)

Value
+16%
Shares
-4%
Last quarter: total value of institutional AA holdings rose +16% even though funds reduced share count by 5%. The stock price increased enough to offset the selling. Institutions are quietly trimming into price strength — watch for rotation.
🚀

Acceleration phase — new buyers rushing in

89 → 67 → 99 → 199 → 195 new funds/Q
New funds entering each quarter: 67 → 99 → 199 → 195. The pace of institutional discovery is accelerating sharply. This is the 'hot idea' phase — the thesis is being passed from fund to fund. You are not late — the accumulation wave is still building.
🏛️

Veteran-anchored — 66% veterans vs 25% newcomers

■ 66% veterans ■ 9% 1-2yr ■ 25% new
Entry-cohort mix of 799 holders: 529 (66%) are 2+ year veterans, 70 entered 1–2 years ago, and 200 (25%) joined within the past year. A veteran-weighted cap table skews toward institutional memory over fresh momentum.
🏆

Elite ownership — 42% AUM from top-100 funds

42% from top-100 AUM funds
59 of 745 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 42% of total institutional value in AA. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.
4.5
out of 10
Moderate Exit Risk
Exit risk score 4.5/10 — some crowding factors present, but no critical concentration. Watch ownership trend over the next 1–2 quarters for direction.

Methodology note: these Smart Money cards use consecutive 13F disclosure snapshots, not trade-by-trade execution data. "Buying", "selling", "new holders", and "trimmed" refer to quarter-over-quarter changes in reported holders, aggregate shares, or disclosed position values between filings. They are useful for ownership regime analysis and crowding, but they do not imply exact trade timing on the filing date.

Institutional Sentiment Summary — AA

In 2026 Q1, 488 hedge funds were net buyers of AA (195 opened a new position, 293 added to an existing one), while 277 reduced or exited (195 trimmed, 82 sold completely) — a 64% buyer ratio, indicating clear institutional accumulation. This marks 3 consecutive quarters of net institutional buying — a persistent conviction signal. 42% of total institutional value in AA is held by top-100 AUM funds, reflecting elite-tier ownership quality. Net fund flow last quarter: +113 funds (more new holders than closures). Total institutional holders: 752.

Hedge Fund Ownership: AA

How many hedge funds hold AA — quarterly history vs. share price
Quarterly hedge fund ownership of AA vs. share price

Market Analysis: AA

Analyst Price Targets

Avg. Price Target
--

Analyst Recommendations

Stock Performance

Real-time

Company Profile: AA

-- --

Institutional ownership data sourced from SEC EDGAR Form 13F-HR filings.

Is It Too Late to Buy Alcoa Corp (AA) Based on Hedge Fund 13F Filings?

Signal Freshness measures how much AA has moved relative to its sector benchmark (SPY) since the 2026 Q1 13F filing. A stock that has barely outrun its sector is still a relatively fresh entry point — the fund's thesis has not yet been priced in by the broader market.

Since Quarter End March 31, 2026 · 79d ago
AA
-5.2%
SPY
+13.9%

AA outperformed SPY by -19.1% since March 31, 2026.

Since 13F Filing Date May 15, 2026 · 34d ago
AA
+0.7%
SPY
+0.2%

Since the filing became public, AA outperformed SPY by +0.5% .

Interpretation: The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference. Learn more →

Smart Money Signal ?
Broad Consensus, Selective Conviction

Many quality funds hold this stock, but top-tier positions remain relatively small.

50 top-rated funds 12 high-conviction
Consensus
7.4
/ 10
breadth
×
Elite
5.6
/ 10
conviction
Hedge Fund Positioning: AA
747 + Investors

Track Smart Money conviction in AA. See who's accumulating, reducing, or initiating positions.

Metric All 13F Filers (2026 Q1) Prior (2025 Q4) Change
Funds Holding 747 639 16.9%
13F Shares 214M 225M -4.62%
Total Value $13.83B $11.89B 16.35%
New Positions 193 199 -6
Increased Positions 280 205 +75
Closed Positions 85 71 +14
Reduced Positions 184 148 +36
Total Calls 28 30 -6.67%
Total Puts 26 32 -18.75%
PUT/CALL Ratio 0.93 1.07 Neutral

Statistics: AA

View More

Valuation Measures Data as of: --

Market Cap --
Enterprise Value --
Trailing P/E --
Forward P/E --
PEG Ratio (5yr expected) --
Price/Sales (ttm) --
Price/Book (mrq) --
Enterprise Value/Revenue --
Enterprise Value/EBITDA --
Beta (5Y Monthly) --
Short Ratio (Days to Cover) --
Short % of Float --

Financial Highlights

Profitability
Profit Margin --
Return on Assets (ttm) --
Return on Equity (ttm) --
Income Statement & Cash Flow
Revenue (ttm) --
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) --
Diluted EPS (ttm) --
Total Cash (mrq) --
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) --
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) --

Institutional Holders (2026 Q1)

747 + investors

Explore institutional interest and hedge fund ownership dynamics. Analyze portfolio weights, new positions, and conviction trends in AA. Verified SEC 13F-HR filings.

QUARTER:
Top 25 AA holders by conviction (% of portfolio weight) — 2026 Q1 · Source: SEC Form 13F
# Investor % of Portfolio Shares Mkt Value
1 Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd 12.25% 685,000 $45.4M
2 Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd 11.23% 478,526 $31.7M
3 Mountaineer Partners Management, LLC 7.70% 233,687 $15.5M
4 Arrow Capital Pty Ltd 4.43% 70,000 $4.4M
5 Pinnbrook Capital Management LP 4.32% 250,000 $16.6M
6 Impala Asset Management LLC 4.02% 130,000 $8.6M
7 Eagle Capital Management LLC 3.14% 14,097,362 $935.1M
8 QSM Asset Management Ltd 2.85% 87,300 $5.8M
9 Global Alpha Capital Management Ltd. 2.75% 689,248 $45.7M
10 Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. 1.95% 903,320 $59.9M
11 XY Capital Ltd 1.65% 25,064 $1.7M
12 Brendel Financial Advisors LLC 1.60% 48,798 $3.2M
13 Old West Investment Management, LLC 1.59% 221,595 $14.7M
14 Cookson Peirce & Co Inc 1.57% 559,674 $37.1M
15 ARGA Investment Management, LP 1.30% 598,004 $39.7M
16 Regal Partners Ltd 1.28% 356,330 $23.6M
17 Financial Sense Advisors, Inc. 1.26% 93,736 $6.2M
18 Hosking Partners LLP 1.23% 516,880 $34.3M
19 Riggs Asset Managment Co. Inc. 1.22% 89,510 $5.9M
20 Encompass Capital Advisors LLC 1.20% 605,149 $40.1M
21 Wakefield Asset Management LLLP 1.18% 66,991 $4.4M
22 Hanseatic Management Services Inc 1.14% 17,958 $1.2M
23 Globeflex Capital L P 1.04% 104,058 $6.9M
24 FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. 1.01% 110,062 $7.3M
25 Douglas Lane & Associates, LLC 0.90% 939,453 $62.3M
Investor Ownership
History 		% of Portfolio Prev % Rank Conviction Avg Buy Price 13F Score™ 3Y / 7Y Sell Timing Shares Mkt Value Change Change % Source Quarter Filed

Frequently Asked Questions — Alcoa Corp (AA)

What does the Smart Money Trend signal show for AA?

Buying streak — 3 quarters in a row: For 3 consecutive quarters, more hedge funds added AA than sold it. That's a consistent pattern of professional buying — not a one-time trade. When institutions keep buying quarter after quarter, it usually means they see a multi-year opportunity, not just a short-term momentum flip.

What is the institutional breadth score for AA?

More buyers than sellers — 64% buying: Last quarter: 488 funds were net buyers (195 opened a brand new position + 293 added to an existing one). Only 277 were sellers (195 trimmed + 82 sold completely). A clear majority buying is a strong confirmation signal.

What is the fund quality score for AA holders?

Elite ownership — 42% AUM from top-100 funds: 59 of 745 holders are among the 100 largest funds by AUM, controlling 42% of total institutional value in AA. When the biggest players dominate the cap table, it signifies deep institutional support — since mega-funds deploy the most rigorous due diligence and capital.

How long have hedge funds held AA?

56% of holders stayed for 2+ years: 418 out of 752 hedge funds have held AA for over 2 years without selling. Long-term investors are generally harder to shake out during market stress, creating a stable ownership base that limits the risk of sudden capitulation.

Is it too late to buy Alcoa Corp (AA) following the 2026 Q1 hedge fund 13F filings?

As of today, AA has moved +0.7% since the 2026 Q1 13F filing date (May 15, 2026), compared to +0.2% for the SPY sector ETF — an outperformance of +0.5%. Since the quarter end (March 31, 2026), AA has gained -5.2% vs +13.9% for SPY. The stock is tracking its sector benchmark closely. The signal remains fresh and the entry point is still near the fund's implied reference.

Where does this institutional ownership data come from?

All holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings, which institutional investment managers with over $100 million in assets are required to submit quarterly. Data is parsed directly from SEC EDGAR.

Disclaimer: The information on this page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Institutional holdings data is sourced from SEC Form 13F filings and reflects positions as of the filing date. Past performance of any fund or portfolio is not indicative of future results. 13Foresight is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.

Full history →